Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Los Angeles FC 2-0 New York Red Bulls.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Los Angeles FC, 29% draw, 33% New York Red Bulls — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Los Angeles FC at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1H. LlorisG
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 33A. LongD
- 91Nkosi TafariD
- 45K. NielsenD
- 66M. ChoiniereM
- 18J. ShaffelburgM
- 22J. TerryM
- 23Y. CheberkoM
- 99D. BouangaM
- 7Son Heung-MinF
- 31C. CarterG
- 14S. PalenciaD
- 44C. DiazD
- 6Igor JesusM
- 19T. BoydF
- 9A. SiebF
- 21R. RaposoM
- 17J. EbobisseF
- 90T. MihalicF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazanD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 37M. SofoM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 7C. CowellF
- 13E. M. Choupo-MotingF
- 92D. NelichF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 26T. ParkerD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 8D. RuizM
- 60S. Kone
- 17C. HarperF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 16J. HallF
- 91M. JimenezF
Form going into Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to Real Salt Lake6 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United29 August 2026
- D1-1Portland Timbers23 August 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids20 August 2026
- L0-1San Diego16 August 2026
New York Red Bulls
All competitions we cover
- D0-0away to Seattle Sounders6 September 2026
- L1-3Philadelphia Union29 August 2026
- D1-1Chicago Fire22 August 2026
- L0-1Nashville SC19 August 2026
- L1-2away to Atlanta United FC15 August 2026
What these results say
- Los Angeles FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Los Angeles FC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Los Angeles FC had two goals or fewer.
- New York Red Bulls did not win any of these 5 matches.
- New York Red Bulls conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 47 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Los Angeles FC vs New York Red Bulls
- 21 April 2024Los Angeles FC 2–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 26 June 2022Los Angeles FC 2–0 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 12 August 2019Los Angeles FC 4–2 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
- 5 August 2018New York Red Bulls 2–1 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Los Angeles FC and New York Red Bulls
Los Angeles FC
GoalsAssists
- D. Bouanga185
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Los Angeles FC beat New York Red Bulls 2–0. The model had made a win for Los Angeles FC its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: J. Terry 21' for Los Angeles FC, A. Sieb 90+6' for Los Angeles FC. On expected goals it finished 1.46–0.43.
How the call on Los Angeles FC v New York Red Bulls has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 28% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Los Angeles FC's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Los Angeles FC win38%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- New York Red Bulls win33%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.