10 September 2026, 02:30 UTC

San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes Major League Soccer prediction & result

Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego
Full time2 – 3

Final score: San Diego 2-3 San Jose Earthquakes.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% San Diego, 30% draw, 27% San Jose Earthquakes — fair odds of 2.33, 3.33 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

San Diego at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

San Diego0%Draw1%San Jose Earthquakes99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽N. Tsakirisassist: B. Leroux
dos Santos CJ
7'
8'
⚽N. Tsakiris (pen)assist: N. Tsakiris
12'
⚽P. Juddassist: N. Tsakiris
13'
P. Judd
C. McVey
18'
30'
🔁P. Juddout: O. Bouda
35'
⚽O. Boudaassist: N. Tsakiris
37'
O. Bouda
⚽A. Dreyerassist: O. Valakari
42'
🔁Gabriel Piraniout: A. Pellegrino
45+2'
45+3'
B. Leroux
🔁A. Godoyout: A. Alvarado Jr
46'
🔁D. Thorhallssonout: K. Sargeant
46'
46'
🔁L. Jovanovicout: E. Lowen
46'
🔁R. Robertsout: M. Floriani
J. Tverskov
52'
67'
🔁J. Jasinskiout: B. Kikanovic
67'
🔁B. Lerouxout: R. Vieira
🔁O. Valakariout: C. Bakambu
68'
75'
M. Floriani
dos Santos CJ
80'
dos Santos CJ
80'
🔁A. Alvarado Jrout: D. Ferree
82'
90+2'
M. Floriani
90+2'
M. Floriani
⚽C. Bakambu (pen)
90+4'
90+5'
R. Vieira

Match stats — San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

53%Possession47%
10Shots11
6On target6
1Corners3
1.77xG2.06

Goals against chances

San Diego2 from 1.77 xGabout what the chances were worth
San Jose Earthquakes3 from 2.06 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

San Diego 4-3-3
  • 1dos Santos CJG
  • 33O. VerhoevenD
  • 26M. DuahD
  • 97C. McVeyD
  • 3D. ThorhallssonD
  • 20A. GodoyM
  • 6J. TverskovM
  • 12Gabriel PiraniM
  • 10A. DreyerF
  • 8O. ValakariF
  • 99E. AchouriF
Substitutes
  • 18D. FerreeG
  • 32I. MurphyD
  • 5K. Sargeant
  • 21B. DukeM
  • 70A. Alvarado JrF
  • 19D. VazquezM
  • 94C. BakambuF
  • 90A. PellegrinoF
  • 14B. B. ZambleF
Coach: Mikey Varas
San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
  • 1A. GunnG
  • 5D. MunieD
  • 4D. RomneyD
  • 18R. RobertsD
  • 17J. JasinskiM
  • 6I. HarkesM
  • 34B. LerouxM
  • 87Vitor CostaM
  • 10N. TsakirisF
  • 9L. JovanovicF
  • 19P. JuddF
Substitutes
  • 31F. MontaliG
  • 2J. RickettsD
  • 25M. FlorianiD
  • 23E. LowenM
  • 14R. VieiraM
  • 16J. SkahanM
  • 20N. FernandezM
  • 7O. BoudaF
  • 28B. KikanovicF
Coach: Bruce Arena

Form going into San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

San Diego

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Orlando City SC5 September 2026
  • W3-1Los Angeles Galaxy30 August 2026
  • W3-0Colorado Rapids23 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Portland Timbers20 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Austin6 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Houston Dynamo30 August 2026
  • L1-5Minnesota United FC23 August 2026
  • L0-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy20 August 2026
  • L1-3St. Louis City16 August 2026

What these results say

  • San Diego scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • San Jose Earthquakes conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13San Diego34911145763-638
4San Jose Earthquakes341410105751+652

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: San Diego vs San Jose Earthquakes

  • 5 April 2026San Jose Earthquakes 3–0 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
  • 24 January 2026San Diego 2–0 San Jose EarthquakesFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 September 2025San Diego 0–1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
  • 17 August 2025San Jose Earthquakes 1–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: San Diego and San Jose Earthquakes

San Diego

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 57 league goals as a side.

San Jose Earthquakes

GoalsAssists

  • P. Judd172

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

San Jose Earthquakes won 3–2 at San Diego. The model had leaned towards a win for San Diego at 43% and given a win for San Jose Earthquakes 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: N. Tsakiris 3' for San Jose Earthquakes, P. Judd 12' for San Jose Earthquakes, O. Bouda 35' for San Jose Earthquakes, A. Dreyer 42' for San Diego, C. Bakambu (penalty) 90+4' for San Diego. Sent off: dos Santos CJ (San Diego) 80', M. Floriani (San Jose Earthquakes) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 1.77–2.06.

How the call on San Diego v San Jose Earthquakes has moved

First published on 1 Sep at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 43% / 30% / 27%: the biggest move is San Diego's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. San Diego win43%▼ −5
  2. Draw30%▲ +3
  3. San Jose Earthquakes win27%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.