12 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali First League prediction & result

Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad
Referee: Kolev, Ivo
Full time5 – 0

Final score: Ludogorets 5-0 Arda Kardzhali.

Before kick-off the model made it 53% Ludogorets, 27% draw, 20% Arda Kardzhali — fair odds of 1.89, 3.70 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ludogorets at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ludogorets99%Draw1%Arda Kardzhali0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Caio Vidal Rochaassist: Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz
18'
Hossam Abdelmaguid
21'
30'
Georgi Nikolaev Nikolov
Caio Vidal Rocha
41'
⚽Bernard Tekpeteyassist: Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz
44'
45+3'
Vyacheslav Velev
⚽Bernard Tekpetey
45+4'
🔁petar stanicout: Aguibou Camara
46'
🔁Deroy Duarteout: Amir Hadžiahmetović
46'
⚽Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruzassist: Aguibou Camara
55'
🔁Bernard Tekpeteyout: Erick Marcus dos Santos Oliveira do Carmo
56'
57'
🔁Antonio Vutovout: Preslav·Bachev
63'
🔁Stanislav Ivanovout: Birsent Karagaren
63'
🔁Svetoslav Kovachevout: Atanas Kabov
🔁Caio Vidal Rochaout: Nathan Fernandes
68'
68'
Viktor Lyubenov
78'
🔁Viktor Lyubenovout: Derick Fernando da Silva
🔁Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruzout: Ivajlo Čočev
79'
⚽Ivan Zhelizkoassist: Amir Hadžiahmetović
86'

Match stats — Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali

70%Possession30%
14Shots4
6On target3
7Corners2

Line-ups

Ludogorets 4-2-3-1
  • 39H. BonmannG
  • 42S. ShishkovD
  • 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD
  • 15E. KurtulusD
  • 2J. AnderssonD
  • 6I. ZhelizkoM
  • 23Deroy DuarteM
  • 37B. TekpeteyF
  • 14P. StanićM
  • 11Caio VidalF
  • 12Rwan CruzF
Substitutes
  • 16Nathan FernandesF
  • 3A. NedyalkovD
  • 44O. RekikD
  • 22M. PolendakovD
  • 5G. TerzievD
  • 20A. CamaraM
  • 18I. ChochevM
  • 77Erick MarcusF
  • 13I. GrbićG
Coach: I. Jovičević
Arda Kardzhali 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GospodinovG
  • 6V. PopovD
  • 24M. PaskalevD
  • 5V. LyubenovD
  • 35D. VelkovskiD
  • 80L. KotevM
  • 21V. VelevD
  • 10S. KovachevF
  • 39A. VutovM
  • 91S. IvanovF
  • 9G. NikolovF
Substitutes
  • 18S. VasilevD
  • 70Nabil MakniF
  • 99B. KaragarenF
  • 11A. KabovF
  • 22Y. GeorgievG
  • 2Derick Fernando da SilvaD
  • 16P. BachevF
  • 26B. AkandzhaM
  • 44Adama Ardile TraoréD
Coach: A. Tunchev

Form going into Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali

Ludogorets

First League

  • W2-1Septemvri Sofia14 September 2026

Arda Kardzhali

First League

  • D1-1Cherno More Varna19 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ludogorets139312611+1530
6Arda Kardzhali146352022-221

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali

  • 15 April 2026Arda Kardzhali 1–0 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 9 November 2025Ludogorets 2–3 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 26 May 2025Ludogorets 2–2 Arda KardzhaliFirst League
  • 9 May 2025Arda Kardzhali 1–1 LudogoretsFirst League
  • 4 December 2024Arda Kardzhali 0–4 LudogoretsFirst League

Leading scorers: Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali

Ludogorets

GoalsAssists

  • B. Tekpetey20
  • Rwan Cruz12

Arda Kardzhali

GoalsAssists

  • B. Karagaren11
  • S. Kovachev10
  • A. Kabov10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ludogorets beat Arda Kardzhali 5–0. The model had made a win for Ludogorets its most likely outcome, at 53%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Caio Vidal Rocha 18' for Ludogorets, Bernard Tekpetey 44' for Ludogorets, Bernard Tekpetey 45+4' for Ludogorets, Rwan Philipe Rodrigues de Souza Cruz 55' for Ludogorets, Ivan Zhelizko 86' for Ludogorets. Sent off: Georgi Nikolaev Nikolov (Arda Kardzhali) 30'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ludogorets a 11.8% chance to finish top of the regular season: 14.3% after a win, 8.7% after a draw, 7.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.3%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

For Arda Kardzhali the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 15.6% going in: 23.9% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 12.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.5%, 3.1 points lower than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ludogorets v Arda Kardzhali has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 48% / 29% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 53% / 27% / 20%: the biggest move is Ludogorets's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Ludogorets win53%▲ +5
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Arda Kardzhali win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.