Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Pumas UNAM 3-3 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Pumas UNAM, 25% draw, 32% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pumas UNAM at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1K. NavasG
- 7R. LópezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 2P. BennevendoD
- 21U. AntunaM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 45P. ViteM
- 10C. HuertaM
- 31R. MoralesF
- 23JuninhoF
- 14L. HerreraF
- 34Á. AzuajeD
- 18V. ArteagaM
- 77Á. AnguloD
- 35P. LaraG
- 24T. LeoneD
- 15I. LunaM
- 30Santiago López LópezF
- 22A. MedinaF
- 23K. MierG
- 22J. RodarteD
- 4W. DittaD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 16J. MárquezM
- 6É. LiraM
- 19C. RodríguezM
- 7N. IbáñezM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 21G. FernándezF
- 60Ariel Castro SevillaM
- 11C. EbereF
- 17A. GarcíaM
- 1A. GudiñoG
- 10A. MontañoM
- 12A. MontesD
- 2A. MozoD
- 33G. PioviD
- 18L. RomeroF
Form going into Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- L2-3Atletico San Luis27 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atlas19 September 2026
- L0-3away to Guadalajara Chivas14 September 2026
- W3-1Leon11 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Tijuana29 August 2026
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- D3-3Toluca26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Monterrey20 September 2026
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
What these results say
- Pumas UNAM conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Pumas UNAM vs Cruz Azul
- 25 May 2026Pumas UNAM 1–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 22 May 2026Cruz Azul 0–0 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 15 March 2026Pumas UNAM 2–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 9 November 2025Cruz Azul 2–3 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 11 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–0 Pumas UNAMFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM and Cruz Azul drew 3–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Pumas UNAM at 43% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Olávio Vieira dos Santos Júnio 10' for Pumas UNAM, Cesar Huerta 16' for Pumas UNAM, Agustín Palavecino 45+3' for Cruz Azul, Robert Morales 49' for Pumas UNAM, Andrés Montaño 64' for Cruz Azul, Osinachi Ebere 85' for Cruz Azul. Sent off: Cesar Huerta (Pumas UNAM) 37'. On expected goals it finished 1.42–2.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Pumas UNAM these chances to finish in the bottom three: 2.7% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 12.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 7.8%.
For Cruz Azul the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 21.4% going in: 34.2% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 18.5%, 2.9 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Pumas UNAM v Cruz Azul has moved
First published on 28 Sep at 41% / 27% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is Pumas UNAM's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Pumas UNAM win43%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Cruz Azul win32%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.