12 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Dijon vs Metz Ligue 2 prediction & result

Dijon
Referee: Marc Bollengier
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Dijon 4-2 Metz.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Dijon, 27% draw, 37% Metz — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Metz at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dijon99%Draw1%Metz0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽H. Vargas Ríosassist: Paul Bellon
19'
23'
Jean Ruiz
⚽Ange Lago
24'
⚽Júlio Tavaresassist: Paul Bellon
32'
44'
⚽Pape Moussa Fallassist: Jessy Deminguet
51'
🔁Believe Munongoout: Abdourahmane Mbodj
🔁Ange Lagoout: Alexis Ntamack
62'
🔁H. Vargas Ríosout: Brandon Nsimba Ndezi
62'
62'
Florian Miguel
66'
🔁Florian Miguelout: Morgan Bokele Mputu
66'
🔁Giorgi Abuashviliout: Ibou Sane
⚽Quentin Bernard
69'
72'
Cristian Castro
🔁Adel Lembezatout: Samy Chouchane
76'
🔁Júlio Tavaresout: Tyris Dong
76'
🔁Boubacar Dialloout: Luis Puleri
84'
84'
🔁Bouna Sarrout: Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag
84'
🔁Maxime Colinout: Abdoulaye Agne Ba
88'
⚽Pape Moussa Fallassist: Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag

Match stats — Dijon vs Metz

40%Possession60%
17Shots13
7On target4
3Corners3
2.05xG1.47

Goals against chances

Dijon4 from 2.05 xGmore than the chances were worth
Metz2 from 1.47 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dijon 4-3-1-2
  • 16P. DelecroixG
  • 7B. HamadaD
  • 23L. LacroixD
  • 5Q. BernardD
  • 75Boubacar DialloD
  • 8P. BellonM
  • 14J. MariéM
  • 20H. Vargas-RíosM
  • 17A. LembezatM
  • 11Júlio TavaresF
  • 90A. LagoF
Substitutes
  • 21Samy Olivier ChouchaneM
  • 6W. DioufD
  • 93I. BouleghchaD
  • 10Y. BarkaF
  • 9T. DongF
  • 46Ilan Marie-RoseG
  • 29A. NtamackF
  • 18B. NdeziM
  • 32Luis PuleriD
Coach: B. Ridira
Metz 3-5-2
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 5J. RuizD
  • 70B. SarrM
  • 12A. TouréM
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 8J. DeminguetM
  • 3F. MiguelM
  • 9G. AbuashviliF
  • 11P. FallF
Substitutes
  • 61P. SyG
  • 88A. Agne BaF
  • 19M. Bokele MputuF
  • 30T. Dos SantosD
  • 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
  • 4U. MboulaD
  • 98I. MohamedD
  • 7Ibou SanéF
  • 39B. SongD
Coach: Grégory Proment

Form going into Dijon vs Metz

Dijon

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1away to Annecy18 September 2026
  • W3-2Laval11 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Boulogne4 September 2026
  • L2-3Saint Etienne31 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Clermont Foot21 August 2026

Metz

All competitions we cover

  • D2-2Saint Etienne19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to RED Star FC 9314 September 2026
  • W4-1Rodez5 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Annecy29 August 2026
  • D1-1Laval22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Dijon scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dijon conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Dijon.
  • Metz conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Metz failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Metz scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Dijon125342119+218
7Metz124532019+117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dijon vs Metz

  • 18 February 2023Dijon 0–0 MetzLigue 2
  • 27 August 2022Metz 1–2 DijonLigue 2
  • 2 May 2021Dijon 1–5 MetzLigue 1
  • 8 November 2020Metz 1–1 DijonLigue 1
  • 7 August 2020Dijon 1–2 MetzFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Dijon and Metz

Dijon

GoalsAssists

  • Júlio Tavares51
  • Y. Barka40

Metz

GoalsAssists

  • P. Fall81
  • J. Deminguet33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dijon beat Metz 4–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Metz at 37% and given a win for Dijon 36%. The goals: H. Vargas Ríos 19' for Dijon, Ange Lago 24' for Dijon, Júlio Tavares 32' for Dijon, Pape Moussa Fall 44' for Metz, Quentin Bernard 69' for Dijon, Pape Moussa Fall 88' for Metz. On expected goals it finished 2.05–1.47.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dijon a 12.0% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.4% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 14.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.4%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

For Metz the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 39.5% going in: 45.9% after a win, 36.0% after a draw, 34.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.0%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.