31 October 2026, 18:15 UTC

Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City Premier Soccer League prediction & result

Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium, Pretoria
Referee: Cedrick Muvhali
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1 Durban City.

Before kick-off the model made it 60% Mamelodi Sundowns, 25% draw, 15% Durban City — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mamelodi Sundowns at 60%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mamelodi Sundowns99%Draw1%Durban City0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Thabang Matuludiassist: Marcelo Allende
34'
45'
🔁Ethan Brooksout: Bokang Mokwena
45'
🔁L. Sifumbaout: Samkelo Maseko
45'
🔁K. Jurgensout: Tylo Jordan Sanger
🔁Cassius Mailulaout: S. Mthanti
62'
🔁Brayan Leon Munizout: Iqraam Rayners
62'
🔁Tashreeq Matthewsout: Antonio Van Wyk
62'
⚽Thabang Matuludiassist: Aubrey Modiba
66'
70'
🔁L. Koapengout: S Green
🔁Bathusi Aubaasout: Katlego Ntsabeleng
78'
⚽Iqraam Raynersassist: S. Mthanti
79'
🔁Nuno Santosout: Arthur Sales
82'
Thabang Matuludi
85'
86'
⚽Jean Lwamba
⚽Antonio Van Wykassist: Arthur Sales
90+4'

Match stats — Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City

68%Possession32%
22Shots5
9On target1
11Corners2
1.75xG0.94

Goals against chances

Mamelodi Sundowns4 from 1.75 xGmore than the chances were worth
Durban City1 from 0.94 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mamelodi Sundowns 4-1-3-2
  • 31R. GossG
  • 22T. MatuludiD
  • 42Malibongwe KhozaD
  • 3K. NdamaneD
  • 6A. ModibaD
  • 11M. AllendeM
  • 10Nuno SantosM
  • 15B. AubaasM
  • 17T. MatthewsM
  • 33C. MailulaF
  • 12B. LeónF
Substitutes
  • 38S. MthantiM
  • 40M. MvalaD
  • 23F. BasadienD
  • 34T. NtsabelengM
  • 1D. OnyangoG
  • 13I. RaynersF
  • 29A. Van WykF
  • 18T. ZwaneM
  • 9Arthur SalesF
Coach: Miguel Cardoso
Durban City 4-1-4-1
  • 33F. AsareG
  • 2B. ShanduD
  • 5S. NcananaD
  • 30M. MkhizeD
  • 24J. MokoneD
  • 18B. PoggenpoelM
  • 35L. SifumbaM
  • 17K. JurgensM
  • 28E. BrooksM
  • 20Jean LwambaM
  • 14L. KoapengF
Substitutes
  • 23Tylo SangerD
  • 29Alou DoumbiaM
  • 13Seth GreenM
  • 1Salim MagoolaG
  • 16L. MakuaM
  • 10S. MasekoM
  • 15Bokang MokwenaM
  • 27Siyabonga MsomiF
  • 26T. NodadaM
Coach: E. Tinkler

Form going into Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City

Mamelodi Sundowns

Premier Soccer League

  • W4-1away to Richards Bay13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Chippa United12 September 2026
  • W3-0Siwelele9 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Golden Arrows6 September 2026

Durban City

Premier Soccer League

  • L1-2Amazulu13 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Milford FC20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Orlando Pirates17 September 2026
  • D0-0Stellenbosch1 September 2026

What these results say

  • Mamelodi Sundowns went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Mamelodi Sundowns scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Mamelodi Sundowns won 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Durban City did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Durban City conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Durban City had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Soccer League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Mamelodi Sundowns10820279+1826
13Durban City9144611-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City

  • 7 April 2026Durban City 0–1 Mamelodi SundownsPremier Soccer League
  • 20 September 2025Mamelodi Sundowns 3–1 Durban CityPremier Soccer League

Leading scorers: Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City

Mamelodi Sundowns

GoalsAssists

  • I. Rayners40
  • T. Matthews34
  • B. León31

Durban City

No player in Premier Soccer League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Durban City 4–1. The model had made a win for Mamelodi Sundowns its most likely outcome, at 60%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Thabang Matuludi 34' for Mamelodi Sundowns, Thabang Matuludi 66' for Mamelodi Sundowns, Iqraam Rayners 79' for Mamelodi Sundowns, Jean Lwamba 86' for Durban City, Antonio Van Wyk 90+4' for Mamelodi Sundowns. On expected goals it finished 1.75–0.94.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mamelodi Sundowns a 21.9% chance to finish top of the regular season: 24.0% after a win, 18.5% after a draw, 13.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.0%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.

For Durban City the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 15.5% going in: 8.0% after a win, 12.9% after a draw, 17.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.3%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier Soccer League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.