31 October 2026, 16:15 UTC

Catanzaro vs Padova Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Nicola Ceravolo, Catanzaro
Referee: Niccolo Turrini
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Catanzaro 1-1 Padova.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Catanzaro, 27% draw, 31% Padova — fair odds of 2.38, 3.70 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Catanzaro at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Catanzaro4%Draw92%Padova4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Antonio Candela
15'
27'
Giovanni·Giunti
⚽Mehdi Dorval
27'
45'
🔁Giovanni·Giuntiout: Emanuele Zuelli
45'
🔁Pietro Fusiout: Marco Pompetti
52'
Alessandro Dellavalle
56'
🔁Filippo Sgarbiout: Matteo Cocchi
🔁Antonio Candelaout: Marco Ruggero
65'
66'
⚽Kevin Varasassist: Alessandro Capelli
🔁Ruggero Frosininiout: Marco D'Alessandro
76'
🔁Jacopo Petriccioneout: Nicola Mosti
76'
🔁Pietro Lemmelloout: G. Arditi
79'
🔁N'Dri Koffiout: Nicolo Buso
79'
81'
🔁Gabriele Artisticoout: Mattia Bortolussi
G. Arditi
82'

Match stats — Catanzaro vs Padova

57%Possession43%
25Shots5
5On target1
11Corners2
1.85xG0.39

Goals against chances

Catanzaro1 from 1.85 xGless than the chances were worth
Padova1 from 0.39 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Catanzaro 3-5-2
  • 22M. PigliacelliG
  • 62R. FrosininiD
  • 4Matias AntoniniD
  • 3M. ImperialeD
  • 27A. CandelaM
  • 28F. TchaounaM
  • 10J. PetriccioneM
  • 30G. AlesiM
  • 93M. DorvalM
  • 19N. KoffiF
  • 9P. IemmelloF
Substitutes
  • 7N. BusoF
  • 91G. ArditiF
  • 77M. D'AlessandroF
  • 18A. GarnicaF
  • 1C. MariettaG
  • 98N. MostiM
  • 20S. PafundiM
  • 8A. PogačarM
  • 6Niccolò PostiglioneD
Coach: M. Mignani
Padova 4-4-2
  • 22A. SorrentinoG
  • 27Alessandro DellavalleD
  • 32F. SgarbiD
  • 5M. LovatoD
  • 24L. CarissoniD
  • 17A. CapelliM
  • 8P. FusiM
  • 6G. GiuntiM
  • 7K. VarasM
  • 90G. ArtisticoF
  • 9L. MoroF
Substitutes
  • 18E. SillettiD
  • 11A. SeghettiF
  • 14M. PompettiM
  • 58C. PastinaD
  • 1L. MouquetG
  • 74D. MarcoliniM
  • 25N. GalazziM
  • 72C. FaedoD
  • 23F. Di MarianoM
Coach: N. Calabro

Form going into Catanzaro vs Padova

Catanzaro

Serie B

  • D1-1away to Benevento27 October 2026
  • L1-6Ascoli24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Hellas Verona16 October 2026

Padova

Serie B

  • W2-0Sudtirol27 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Avellino24 October 2026
  • L1-2Virtus Entella17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
20Catanzaro111371123-126
10Padova114341213-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Catanzaro vs Padova

  • 14 March 2026Padova 1–3 CatanzaroSerie B
  • 19 October 2025Catanzaro 0–1 PadovaSerie B
  • 29 May 2022Padova 2–1 CatanzaroSerie C - Girone A
  • 25 May 2022Catanzaro 0–0 PadovaSerie C - Girone A
  • 19 January 2022Catanzaro 0–1 PadovaCoppa Italia Serie C
  • 15 December 2021Padova 1–1 CatanzaroCoppa Italia Serie C

The result against the call

Catanzaro and Padova drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Catanzaro at 42% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mehdi Dorval 27' for Catanzaro, Kevin Varas 66' for Padova. On expected goals it finished 1.85–0.39.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Catanzaro a 23.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 19.7% after a win, 24.8% after a draw, 27.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 24.8%, 1.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Catanzaro v Padova has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 49% / 27% / 24% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 42% / 27% / 31%: the biggest move is Catanzaro's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Catanzaro win42%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Padova win31%▲ +7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.