Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer 1. Lig prediction & result
Final score: Vanspor FK 1-0 Sarıyer.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Vanspor FK, 30% draw, 32% Sarıyer — fair odds of 2.63, 3.33 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Vanspor FK at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22A. DamluG
- 13N. OularéD
- 5S. OsmanoğluD
- 2K. SevenD
- 61F. GençD
- 11M. ManişM
- 41M. ÖzcanM
- 19H. ÇiftçiM
- 15T. YenneM
- 9Álvaro de OliveiraF
- 17İlkan SeverF
- 7I. AlhaftF
- 8M. KhanM
- 10O. KökçüF
- 1A. UysalG
- 58Ö. YiğiterM
- 25F. ÖzhanF
- 35B. İşçilerD
- 65M. BingölD
- 26E. AytunD
- 13I. ŠehićG
- 23Ü. ErgünD
- 24K. ArslanD
- 88C. OsmanpaşaD
- 5E. KorkmazoğluD
- 14T. ErgülM
- 8Marcos SilvaM
- 28H. YeşilyurtM
- 10E. KaracaM
- 90E. EzeF
- 93M. ThiamF
- 7B. AliciM
- 3J. AttamahD
- 53A. Biyogo PokoM
- 17D. DavasM
- 4E. DikmenD
- 41F. GedikF
- 11E. KaradağM
- 9B. KörF
- 19Yagiz SenM
Form going into Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer
Vanspor FK
1. Lig
- W3-0away to Boluspor23 October 2026
- L0-2Ümraniyespor18 October 2026
- W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026
Sarıyer
1. Lig
- L0-2Fatih Karagümrük24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Sivasspor17 October 2026
- L1-4Bodrum FK13 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vanspor FK | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 13 | Sarıyer | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Sarıyer
- 22 March 2026Vanspor FK 0–0 Sarıyer1. Lig
- 7 November 2025Sarıyer 2–1 Vanspor FK1. Lig
- 30 April 2023Sarıyer 2–3 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 27 November 2022Vanspor FK 1–1 Sarıyer2. Lig
- 20 March 2022Sarıyer 1–1 Vanspor FK2. Lig
- 6 November 2021Vanspor FK 1–0 Sarıyer2. Lig
The result against the call
Vanspor FK beat Sarıyer 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Vanspor FK at 38%. The goal: Ilias Alhaft 88' for Vanspor FK. On expected goals it finished 0.65–0.61.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vanspor FK a 62.9% chance to finish in the bottom four: 57.5% after a win, 64.5% after a draw, 68.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.5%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.
For Sarıyer the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 14.0% going in: 9.5% after a win, 14.1% after a draw, 17.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.2%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.