31 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Cremonese vs Benevento Serie B prediction & result

Stadio Giovanni Zini, Cremona
Referee: Livio Marinelli
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Cremonese 2-0 Benevento.

Before kick-off the model made it 29% Cremonese, 32% draw, 39% Benevento — fair odds of 3.45, 3.13 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Benevento at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cremonese99%Draw1%Benevento0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

26'
Raffaele Romano
35'
Mattia Maita
⚽Tommaso Bertiassist: Federico Bonazzoli
44'
45'
🔁G. Mignaniout: Francesco Salvemini
45'
🔁Davide Lamestaout: Luigi Cherubini
45'
🔁Raffaele Romanoout: Pietro Beruatto
🔁Morten Thorsbyout: Michele Collocolo
45'
🔁Federico Bonazzoliout: D. Stückler
62'
🔁Jari Vandeputteout: Marco Nasti
62'
63'
🔁Antonis Siatounisout: Simone Verdi
🔁Salvatore Eliaout: Adin Ličina
77'
Adin Ličina
80'
D. Stückler
82'
Fabio Pecchia
83'
83'
🔁David Okerekeout: Emanuele Schimmenti
🔁Giuseppe Pezzellaout: Fellipe Jack
85'
⚽Marco Nasti
87'
90'
Simone Verdi
Tommaso Berti
90+2'

Match stats — Cremonese vs Benevento

38%Possession62%
12Shots12
3On target4
1Corners7
2.41xG1.06

Goals against chances

Cremonese2 from 2.41 xGabout what the chances were worth
Benevento0 from 1.06 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Cremonese 4-4-1-1
  • 1A. FulignatiG
  • 25D. LordkipanidzeD
  • 6F. BaschirottoD
  • 5S. LupertoD
  • 3G. PezzellaD
  • 71S. EliaM
  • 8Simone Lottici TessadriM
  • 14T. BertiM
  • 27J. VandeputteM
  • 2M. ThorsbyM
  • 90F. BonazzoliF
Substitutes
  • 9M. De LucaF
  • 12M. FestaG
  • 7D. StücklerF
  • 18M. CollocoloM
  • 33A. GrassiM
  • 17A. LickūnasF
  • 10Adin LičinaM
  • 28simone marsiD
  • 13Fellipe JackD
Coach: F. Pecchia
Benevento 4-3-3
  • 26G. VannucchiG
  • 25Raffaele RomanoD
  • 23P. SaioD
  • 15C. Dalle MuraD
  • 17L. SernicolaD
  • 11D. LamestaM
  • 4A. PriscoM
  • 8M. MaitaM
  • 6A. SiatounisF
  • 32G. MignaniF
  • 29D. OkerekeF
Substitutes
  • 20P. BeruattoD
  • 5L. CaldirolaD
  • 10L. CherubiniF
  • 22M. EspositoG
  • 16Mattia ManniniD
  • 9F. SalveminiF
  • 21E. SchimmentiM
  • 14S. ScognamilloD
  • 18P. SimonettiM
Coach: Antonio Floro Flores

Form going into Cremonese vs Benevento

Cremonese

Serie B

  • W2-0away to Mantova27 October 2026
  • L0-1Juve Stabia24 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Pisa17 October 2026

Benevento

Serie B

  • D1-1Catanzaro27 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Arezzo24 October 2026
  • D2-2Vicenza Virtus17 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie B table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Cremonese114341412+215
6Benevento114431511+416

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cremonese vs Benevento

  • 1 March 2022Benevento 1–1 CremoneseSerie B
  • 17 October 2021Cremonese 1–1 BeneventoSerie B
  • 21 June 2020Cremonese 0–1 BeneventoSerie B
  • 30 October 2019Benevento 2–0 CremoneseSerie B
  • 10 March 2019Cremonese 1–0 BeneventoSerie B
  • 27 October 2018Benevento 2–1 CremoneseSerie B

Leading scorers: Cremonese and Benevento

Cremonese

GoalsAssists

  • F. Bonazzoli62

Benevento

GoalsAssists

  • A. Siatounis40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Cremonese beat Benevento 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Benevento at 39% and given a win for Cremonese 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Tommaso Berti 44' for Cremonese, Marco Nasti 87' for Cremonese. On expected goals it finished 2.41–1.06.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Cremonese a 19.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 14.3% after a win, 19.9% after a draw, 23.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 14.3%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

For Benevento the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 13.5% going in: 15.9% after a win, 12.7% after a draw, 9.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.7%, 3.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Serie B season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Cremonese v Benevento has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 43% / 30% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 29% / 32% / 39%: the biggest move is Cremonese's chance of winning, down 14 points.

  1. Cremonese win29%▼ −14
  2. Draw32%▲ +2
  3. Benevento win39%▲ +12

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.