Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK Süper Lig prediction & result
Final score: Erzurumspor FK 1-3 Çorum FK.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Erzurumspor FK, 27% draw, 38% Çorum FK — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Çorum FK at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ertuğrul TaşkıranG
- 53Orhan OvacıklıD
- 4Amar GerxhaliuD
- 3Yakup KırtayD
- 18Nihad MujakićD
- 15Guram GiorbelidzeD
- 6Brandon BaiyeM
- 42Elisha OwusuM
- 65Martín RodríguezM
- 20Miguel CardosoF
- 10Eren TozluF
- 9Gyrano KerkF
- 99Mustafa FettahogluF
- 19Ibrahim DiabatéF
- 2Festy EboseleD
- 8Sefa AkgünM
- 31Matija OrbanićG
- 25Ömer Arda KaraD
- 23Cengizhan BayrakD
- 77Lawrence AgyekumM
- 1Marcos FelipeG
- 11Gökhan SazdağıD
- 2Çağlar SöyüncüD
- 6Hrvoje SmolčićD
- 24Andrei BorzaD
- 7Cengiz ÜnderM
- 20Ylber RamadaniM
- 10Mohammed DiomandeM
- 89Alexandros KyziridisM
- 26Ermin MahmićF
- 19Jesús RamírezF
- 5Alexandre PenetraD
- 30Ahmed IldızM
- 14Youssoufa MoukokoF
- 8Markus KarlsbakkM
- 21Göktan GürpüzM
- 18Erhan ErentürkG
- 4Serdar SaatçıD
- 15Arda ŞengülD
- 3Berat ÖzdemirM
Form going into Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Süper Lig
- W3-1away to Gaziantep FK24 October 2026
- W2-0Eyüpspor17 October 2026
- D0-0away to Alanyaspor10 October 2026
Çorum FK
Süper Lig
- L0-2away to Göztepe25 October 2026
- W2-1Rizespor16 October 2026
- W3-0away to Gaziantep FK11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Erzurumspor FK | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Çorum FK | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Çorum FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Çorum FK and Erzurumspor FK have met 7 times in the records we hold, Erzurumspor FK has won 3 of them to Çorum FK's 2, with 2 drawn.
The record
Çorum FK won the last one 3–1 on 31 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 Oct 2026
Süper LigErzurumspor FK 1–3 Çorum FK - 2 May 2026
1. LigÇorum FK 1–1 Erzurumspor FK - 28 Dec 2025
1. LigErzurumspor FK 1–0 Çorum FK - 9 Apr 2025
1. LigErzurumspor FK 1–1 Çorum FK - 30 Nov 2024
1. LigÇorum FK 0–1 Erzurumspor FK - 28 Apr 2024
1. LigErzurumspor FK 2–1 Çorum FK - 10 Dec 2023
1. LigÇorum FK 4–1 Erzurumspor FK
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Çorum FK's attack rates 60% above Erzurumspor FK's, and Erzurumspor FK concede 14% fewer than Çorum FK. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Çorum FK | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 0.60 | 1.26 |
Leading scorers: Erzurumspor FK and Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Çorum FK
GoalsAssists
- C. Ramírez61
- A. Kyziridis44
- C. Ünder42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Çorum FK won 3–1 at Erzurumspor FK. The model had made a win for Çorum FK its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: C. Soyuncu 20' for Çorum FK, J. Ramirez 71' for Çorum FK, I. Diabate 74' for Erzurumspor FK, J. Ramirez (penalty) 78' for Çorum FK. On expected goals it finished 0.73–1.18.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Erzurumspor FK a 7.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 4.2% after a win, 7.2% after a draw, 9.8% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 9.8%, 2.2 points higher than before the match.
For Çorum FK the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 6.1% going in: 7.6% after a win, 5.2% after a draw, 4.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.6%, 1.5 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Süper Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Erzurumspor FK v Çorum FK has moved
First published on 17 Oct at 25% / 26% / 49% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is Çorum FK's chance of winning, down 11 points.
- Erzurumspor FK win35%▲ +10
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Çorum FK win38%▼ −11
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.