31 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Paykan Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Full time1 – 3

Final score: Mes Shahr-e Babak 1-3 Paykan.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Mes Shahr-e Babak, 28% draw, 39% Paykan — fair odds of 3.03, 3.57 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Paykan at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mes Shahr-e Babak0%Draw1%Paykan99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽F. Amiriassist: M. Najafi
🔁A. Enayatzadehout: A. Abdullahi
41'
44'
⚽H. Ahmadiassist: A. Madadizadeh
🔁M. Tarhaniout: F. Gerami
46'
🔁G. Pouriaout: A. Ghezel
46'
65'
⚽H. Ahmadiassist: A. Madadizadeh
65'
🔁J. Asadiout: S. Ashouri
70'
🔁A. Madadizadehout: M. Hakimzadeh
74'
M. Najafi
🔁M. Vahabzadehout: M. Hasheminasab
76'
🔁A. Valizadehout: A. Roustaei
84'
85'
🔁H. Ahmadiout: M. Sayyar
86'
🔁M. Najafiout: I. Karami
⚽F. Geramiassist: M. Sefid
90+1'

Line-ups

Mes Shahr-e Babak
  • 1M. Ghavidel
  • 7M. J. Pouravaz
  • 21M. Azhir
  • 2M. Tarhani
  • 71G. Pouria
  • 77M. Sefid
  • 5A. Enayatzadeh
  • 8M. Tajik
  • 17A. Karbalaei
  • 10A. Valizadeh
  • 37M. Vahabzadeh
Substitutes
  • A. Abdullahi
  • 19A. Ghezel
  • 4F. Gerami
  • 88M. Hasheminasab
  • 9A. Roustaei
  • 89M. Abdollahi
Paykan
  • 1H. Pourhamidi
  • 7H. Ahmadi
  • 6S. Mohebi
  • 5M. Bagheri
  • 2A. Gholami
  • 61J. Asadi
  • 18A. Madadizadeh
  • 11F. Amiri
  • 8M. Najafi
  • 72H. Shoushtari
  • 66A. Dehghan
Substitutes
  • 10S. Nariman
  • 13A. Abbasi
  • 15M. Sayyar
  • 29M. Mashayekh
  • 47A. Radin
  • 55A. Fathi
  • 70I. Karami
  • 80M. Hakimzadeh
  • 88E. Hadian

Form going into Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Paykan

Mes Shahr-e Babak

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • L0-4away to Sepahan FC25 October 2026
  • L0-3Persepolis FC19 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Foolad FC8 October 2026

Paykan

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D1-1Malavan25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Fajr Sepasi19 October 2026
  • D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Mes Shahr-e Babak12057723-165
11Paykan123541112-114

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Paykan

  • 11 April 2025Mes Shahr-e Babak 1–1 PaykanAzadegan League
  • 16 November 2024Paykan 1–1 Mes Shahr-e BabakAzadegan League

The result against the call

Paykan won 3–1 at Mes Shahr-e Babak. The model had made a win for Paykan its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: F. Amiri 19' for Paykan, H. Ahmadi 44' for Paykan, H. Ahmadi 65' for Paykan, F. Gerami 90+1' for Mes Shahr-e Babak.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mes Shahr-e Babak a 96.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 90.1% after a win, 100.0% after a draw, 100.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 100.0%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Paykan the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 4.8% going in: 0.0% after a win, 1.4% after a draw, 11.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 0.0%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mes Shahr-e Babak v Paykan has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 37% / 28% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 33% / 28% / 39%: the biggest move is Mes Shahr-e Babak's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Mes Shahr-e Babak win33%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Paykan win39%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.