Macara vs Barcelona SC Liga Pro prediction & result
Final score: Macara 3-0 Barcelona SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% Macara, 28% draw, 31% Barcelona SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Macara at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Macara vs Barcelona SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. RodriguezG
- 25J. BolañosD
- 21S. EtchebarneD
- 14J. MarrufoD
- 27J. MohorD
- 28A. CampanaM
- 16J. CazaresM
- 5J. EstacioM
- 20M. VieraM
- 15M. TelloF
- 9F. PosseF
- 18A. RodriguezF
- 50C. CaicedoM
- 12D. CueroG
- 3Juan EspinozaD
- 11Tono EspinozaM
- 22L. FerroF
- 4J. JiménezD
- 87J. KlingerF
- 26M. MedrandaD
- 1J. ContrerasG
- 18B. CarabalíD
- 33J. BáezD
- 4G. VallecillaD
- 27W. VargasD
- 32M. LugoM
- 50J. GarcíaM
- 26B. CastilloM
- 8S. DíazM
- 51Jefferson WilaM
- 9D. BenedettoF
- 7E. MendozaF
- 70M. MejíaF
- 23T. MartínezM
- 35J. IntriagoM
- 80Jandry GomezM
- 10D. DíazM
- 16L. CanoF
- 13José Luis AnguloG
- 15J. PerlazaF
Form going into Macara vs Barcelona SC
Macara
Liga Pro
- W2-1away to LDU de Quito24 October 2026
- W1-0Independiente del Valle17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Universidad Catolica Quito11 October 2026
Barcelona SC
Liga Pro
- W4-0away to Aucas25 October 2026
- D1-1Universidad Catolica Quito18 October 2026
- L1-2away to LDU de Quito11 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Macara | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 52 | 37 | +15 | 67 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 35 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 39 | 32 | +7 | 49 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Macara vs Barcelona SC
- 9 August 2026Barcelona SC 1–2 MacaraLiga Pro
- 19 April 2026Macara 3–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 17 August 2025Barcelona SC 0–2 MacaraLiga Pro
- 27 April 2025Macara 0–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
- 15 September 2024Barcelona SC 2–1 MacaraLiga Pro
- 30 March 2024Macara 1–1 Barcelona SCLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Macara and Barcelona SC
Macara
GoalsAssists
- F. Posse175
- A. Campana123
Barcelona SC
GoalsAssists
- D. Benedetto92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Macara beat Barcelona SC 3–0. The model had made a win for Macara its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Franco Posse 7' for Macara, augustin campana 45+4' for Macara, Franco Posse 62' for Macara. On expected goals it finished 1.85–0.43.
How the call on Macara v Barcelona SC has moved
First published on 18 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is Macara's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Macara win41%▼ −3
- Draw28%=
- Barcelona SC win31%▲ +3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.