30 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak Persian Gulf Pro League prediction & result

Foolad Arena, Ahvaz
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Foolad FC 1-0 Aluminium Arak.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Foolad FC, 28% draw, 21% Aluminium Arak — fair odds of 1.96, 3.57 and 4.76.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Foolad FC at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Foolad FC97%Draw3%Aluminium Arak0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽A. Razzaghpour
22'
37'
S. Jafarikia
45+2'
M. Mousavi
S. Ansari
53'
58'
🔁R. Jabirehout: S. Bozorg
🔁V. Amiriout: Y. Mazrae
60'
🔁E. Mahrooghiout: M. Keshavarzi
60'
69'
🔁B. Goudarziout: A. Karimi
69'
🔁S. Jafarikiaout: R. Zolfipour
🔁F. Ahmadzadehout: A. Bagheri
70'
🔁G. Latifiout: M. Keshavarzi
70'
78'
A. Nouri
🔁A. Akbarzadehout: M. Badragheh
80'
A. Akvan
82'

Line-ups

Foolad FC
  • 81H. Lak
  • 3S. Ansari
  • 14A. Akvan
  • 5A. Saedi
  • 2A. Razzaghpour
  • 6O. Hamedifar
  • 11V. Amiri
  • 29G. Latifi
  • 30A. Akbarzadeh
  • 10F. Ahmadzadeh
  • 9E. Mahrooghi
Substitutes
  • 1M. Forouzan
  • 12A. Heydari
  • 13M. Badragheh
  • 20Y. Mazrae
  • 21M. Moradi
  • 23A. Bagheri
  • 26M. Kazemi
  • 70A. Attar
  • 77M. Keshavarzi
Aluminium Arak
  • 1M. Khalifeh
  • 4A. Houshmand
  • 44S. Jafarikia
  • 15M. Mousavi
  • 13M. Mahdavi
  • 6M. Motlaghzadeh
  • 5A. Nouri
  • 2B. Goudarzi
  • 8A. Ghanbari
  • 21S. Sadeghi
  • 10R. Jabireh
Substitutes
  • 7A. Sadeghi
  • 9S. Bozorg
  • 12M. Tayefeh
  • 14A. Karimi
  • 16M. Bagheri
  • 19A. Rezaei
  • 20S. Abbasiyan
  • 23E. Khodadadian
  • 66S. Kamalvand

Form going into Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak

Foolad FC

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • W1-0away to Persepolis FC25 October 2026
  • D0-0Nassaji Mazandaran18 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Malavan13 October 2026

Aluminium Arak

Persian Gulf Pro League

  • D0-0ZOB Ahan23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Sanat Naft17 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Fajr Sepasi13 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Persian Gulf Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Foolad FC12651126+623
6Aluminium Arak12453129+317

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak

  • 5 December 2025Foolad FC 0–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 14 March 2025Foolad FC 2–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 20 October 2024Aluminium Arak 4–2 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 1 May 2024Aluminium Arak 1–1 Foolad FCPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 10 November 2023Foolad FC 1–0 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League
  • 18 May 2023Foolad FC 2–2 Aluminium ArakPersian Gulf Pro League

The result against the call

Foolad FC beat Aluminium Arak 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Foolad FC at 51%. The goal: A. Razzaghpour 22' for Foolad FC.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Foolad FC a 7.8% chance to finish in the top two: 13.1% after a win, under 1% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.1%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Foolad FC v Aluminium Arak has moved

First published on 16 Oct at 48% / 27% / 25% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 51% / 28% / 21%: the biggest move is Aluminium Arak's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Foolad FC win51%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▲ +1
  3. Aluminium Arak win21%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.