Persian Gulf Pro League predictions & fixtures

Thursday 19 November — 3 matches

13:00 UTC Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal FC — model 31% / 27% / 42%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.23 · 3.70 · 2.38. Edge: Esteghlal FC
13:00 UTC Malavan vs Gol Gohar — model 33% / 27% / 40%, most likely 1-2, fair odds 3.03 · 3.70 · 2.50. Edge: Gol Gohar
13:45 UTC Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Tractor Sazi — model 12% / 20% / 68%, most likely 0-2, fair odds 8.33 · 5.00 · 1.47. One-sided: Tractor Sazi

Friday 20 November — 4 matches

12:00 UTC Fajr Sepasi vs Chadormalu SC — model 45% / 24% / 31%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.22 · 4.17 · 3.23. Evenly matched
12:00 UTC ZOB Ahan vs Shams Azar Qazvin — model 41% / 32% / 27%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.44 · 3.13 · 3.70. Evenly matched
12:45 UTC Persepolis FC vs Paykan — model 61% / 23% / 16%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.64 · 4.35 · 6.25. Edge: Persepolis FC
14:30 UTC Sanat Naft vs Esteghlal Khuzestan — model 40% / 27% / 33%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.50 · 3.70 · 3.03. Evenly matched

Saturday 21 November — 2 matches

12:45 UTC Nassaji Mazandaran vs Aluminium Arak — model 39% / 30% / 31%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 2.56 · 3.33 · 3.23. Evenly matched
14:30 UTC Foolad FC vs Sepahan FC — model 33% / 29% / 38%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.03 · 3.45 · 2.63. Edge: Sepahan FC

Thursday 26 November — 1 match

12:45 UTC Chadormalu SC vs Mes Shahr-e Babak — model 70% / 18% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.43 · 5.56 · 8.33. One-sided: Chadormalu SC

Friday 27 November — 4 matches

11:30 UTC Paykan vs Foolad FC — model 31% / 30% / 39%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.33 · 2.56. Edge: Foolad FC
11:30 UTC Shams Azar Qazvin vs Kheybar Khorramabad — model 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.78 · 3.57 · 2.78. Tight game · draw in reach
12:45 UTC Aluminium Arak vs Persepolis FC — model 31% / 28% / 41%, most likely 0-1, fair odds 3.23 · 3.57 · 2.44. Edge: Persepolis FC
13:00 UTC Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Malavan — model 50% / 25% / 25%, most likely 2-1, fair odds 2.00 · 4.00 · 4.00. Evenly matched

Saturday 28 November — 3 matches

11:45 UTC Tractor Sazi vs ZOB Ahan — model 65% / 24% / 11%, most likely 1-0, fair odds 1.54 · 4.17 · 9.09. One-sided: Tractor Sazi
12:45 UTC Esteghlal FC vs Sanat Naft — model 68% / 20% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.47 · 5.00 · 8.33. One-sided: Esteghlal FC
14:00 UTC Sepahan FC vs Nassaji Mazandaran — model 69% / 19% / 12%, most likely 2-0, fair odds 1.45 · 5.26 · 8.33. One-sided: Sepahan FC

Last round: the model's hits and misses

5–8 November: the model called the result of 3 of 9 matches, 1 of them to the exact score. Across all 45 settled predictions in this competition, it has called 44% of results.

Shams Azar Qazvin 0–1 Sanat Naft — the model said 52% / 26% / 22%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Aluminium Arak 1–0 Mes Shahr-e Babak — the model said 65% / 20% / 15%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Sepahan FC 4–0 Malavan — the model said 71% / 18% / 11%, most likely 2-0: result correct.
Persepolis FC 1–2 Fajr Sepasi — the model said 67% / 19% / 14%, most likely 2-0: result missed.
Chadormalu SC 1–1 Foolad FC — the model said 36% / 28% / 36%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Paykan 1–1 Nassaji Mazandaran — the model said 45% / 29% / 26%, most likely 1-0: result missed.
Tractor Sazi 2–0 Kheybar Khorramabad — the model said 63% / 22% / 15%, most likely 2-0: exact scoreline.
Esteghlal Khuzestan 2–2 Esteghlal FC — the model said 23% / 28% / 49%, most likely 0-1: result missed.
Gol Gohar 0–0 ZOB Ahan — the model said 52% / 28% / 20%, most likely 1-0: result missed.

Persian Gulf Pro League so far

Top of the table

1. Sepahan FC — 26 pts from 12 (8W 2D 2L, goals 23–7)
2. Persepolis FC — 23 pts from 12 (7W 2D 3L, goals 20–7)
3. Tractor Sazi — 23 pts from 11 (7W 2D 2L, goals 14–5)
4. Foolad FC — 23 pts from 12 (6W 5D 1L, goals 12–6)
5. Esteghlal FC — 21 pts from 11 (5W 6D 0L, goals 14–5)

The model's chance of finishing first in the regular season, from 10,000 simulations of the 48 matches left: Sepahan FC 38.6%, Tractor Sazi 33.8%, Esteghlal FC 14.3%.

Leading scorers: I. Sergeev (Persepolis FC) 1 goal.