Burnley sit 24th in the Championship on 3 points from 7 matches, having scored 8 and conceded 16. The model rates their attack at 0.90× the league average and their defence at 1.10× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Across their last 5 league matches they have 2 draws and 3 defeats, most recently losing to Swansea 1-3 away. That is 0.43 points a match, scoring 1.14 and conceding 2.29 per game across 0 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats. That leaves them 11 points behind West Ham at the top, in a table of 24. Among the 24 rated sides in the division that is the 3rd-best attack and the 3rd-best defence. They scored in 5 of those 5 and kept 0 clean sheets. Next they host Derby in the Championship on 19 September 2026, a match the model gives them 51%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
Burnley sit 24 of 24, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Recent league form
- L1-3away to Swansea12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Wrexham8 September 2026
- L1-2Bristol City5 September 2026
- D1-1Middlesbrough2 September 2026
- L1-4away to Norwich29 August 2026
Last 5 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Burnley vs Derby
Burnley host Derby at Turf Moor, Burnley on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. The model makes it 51% Burnley, 27% draw and 22% Derby, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0. It projects 1.99 expected goals for Burnley against 0.91. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Full preview and model analysis for Burnley vs Derby
Recent meetings with Derby
- 26 August 2025Burnley 2–1 DerbyLeague Cup
- 8 April 2025Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
- 10 December 2024Burnley 0–0 DerbyChampionship
- 25 January 2016Burnley 4–1 DerbyChampionship
- 21 September 2015Derby 0–0 BurnleyChampionship
The last 5 meetings between the two, most recent first.