Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Minnesota United FC 1-2 Atlanta United FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 50% Minnesota United FC, 23% draw, 27% Atlanta United FC — fair odds of 2.00, 4.35 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Minnesota United FC at 50% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 12D. CallenderG
- 28J. DiazD
- 15M. BoxallD
- 23M. DugganD
- 21B. HlongwaneM
- 30O. GeneM
- 20W. TrappM
- 13A. MarkanichM
- 26J. PereyraF
- 22M. CaldeiraF
- 8T. ChancalayF
- 1A. SmirG
- 3K. DuncanD
- 2D. PadelfordD
- 67C. HarveyM
- 24J. GresselM
- 16A. JacksonM
- 9K. YeboahF
- 18M. GonzalezF
- 29M. DiengF
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 5S. GregersenD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BaezD
- 48C. SanchezM
- 16A. GillM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 59A. MiranchukF
- 10M. AlmironF
- 22F. PicaultF
- 42J. HibbertG
- 27P. DiazD
- 47M. EdwardsD
- 2R. HernandezD
- 4E. MihajD
- 7S. AlzateM
- 20L. BrennanM
- 30C. TogashiF
- 19Sergio SantosF
Form going into Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC
- D1-1away to Real Salt Lake16 August 2026
- D1-1San Diego2 August 2026
- D0-0Vancouver Whitecaps26 July 2026
- L1-2away to Sporting Kansas City23 July 2026
Atlanta United FC
- W2-1New York Red Bulls15 August 2026
- L2-3away to Philadelphia Union1 August 2026
- L1-4away to New England Revolution25 July 2026
- D2-2away to Charlotte23 July 2026
- L0-1away to Nashville SC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Head-to-head: Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC
- 20 August 2026Minnesota United FC 1–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 4 May 2024Atlanta United FC 1–2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 28 August 2019Atlanta United FC 2–1 Minnesota United FCUS Open Cup
- 29 May 2019Atlanta United FC 3–0 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- 1 April 2018Minnesota United FC 0–1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 3 October 2017Atlanta United FC 2–3 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Minnesota United FC and Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC
- K. Yeboah13 goals2 assists
Atlanta United FC
No leading scorers listed yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.