Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Real Salt Lake 3-4 FC Dallas.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% Real Salt Lake, 22% draw, 20% FC Dallas — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Salt Lake at 58% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 7 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 26P. QuintonD
- 21J. J. AriasD
- 4L. EngelD
- 2D. YedlinM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 9M. GuilavoguiF
- 10D. LunaF
- 22S. SolansF
- 31M. StajduharG
- 98A. KatranisD
- 3K. HenryD
- 29S. JunquaD
- 7P. RuizM
- 39A. HezarkhaniF
- 12S. LobjanidzeM
- 17V. OlatunjiF
- 70Lineker RodriguesF
- 40J. SiroisG
- 18S. MooreD
- 3O. UrhoghideD
- 32N. NorrisD
- 14H. JohanssonM
- 55KaickM
- 17RamiroM
- 77B. KamungoM
- 21J. ValienteF
- 10S. MorenoF
- 9P. MusaF
- 30M. CollodiG
- 25S. IbeaghaD
- 5L. AbubakarD
- 12C. CappisM
- 8P. DelgadoM
- 6R. BinyaminM
- 33C. HolstadM
- 28S. SarverF
- 23L. FarringtonF
Form going into Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas
Real Salt Lake
- D1-1Minnesota United FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to St. Louis City2 August 2026
- L1-2away to Portland Timbers26 July 2026
- L1-3away to Los Angeles FC23 July 2026
FC Dallas
- W2-1away to Austin17 August 2026
- D0-0away to Los Angeles Galaxy2 August 2026
- L0-1away to San Diego26 July 2026
- D2-2away to Portland Timbers23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 29 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas
- 20 August 2026Real Salt Lake 3–4 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 10 May 2026FC Dallas 3–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 30 January 2026Real Salt Lake 0–2 FC DallasThe Atlantic Cup
- 11 May 2025FC Dallas 1–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 23 March 2025Real Salt Lake 0–1 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
- 19 September 2024Real Salt Lake 3–2 FC DallasMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 37 league goals as a side.
FC Dallas
- P. Musa18 goals5 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.