20 August 2026, 01:30 UTC

Seattle Sounders vs Austin Major League Soccer prediction & result

Lumen Field, Seattle

Full time1 – 2

Final score: Seattle Sounders 1-2 Austin.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% Seattle Sounders, 23% draw, 19% Austin — fair odds of 1.72, 4.35 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 17 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Seattle Sounders at 58% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Seattle Sounders0%Draw1%Austin99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁S. Gomezout: S. Brunell

46'

K. Kossa-Rienzi

48'

59'

🔁C. Fodreyout: Guilherme Biro

66'

⚽F. Torresassist: Z. Kolmanic

🔁J. Ragenout: S. Hawkins

69'

71'

🔁P. Plachetaout: M. Desler

71'

🔁J. Nelsonout: E. Torres

🔁P. Kingstonout: O. De Rosario

76'

79'

🔁Z. Kolmanicout: M. Djordjevic

79'

🔁I. Sanchezout: B. Sabovic

87'

⚽Guilherme Biroassist: B. Vazquez

🔁Nouhouout: R. Jauregui

88'

⚽S. Hawkinsassist: A. Rusnak

90'

Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Austin

46%Possession54%

19Shots12

7On target7

7Corners5

1.25xG1.18

Goals against chances

Seattle Sounders1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Austin2 from 1.18 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1

26A. ThomasG
85K. Kossa-RienziD
20Kim Kee-HeeD
25J. RagenD
5NouhouD
16A. RoldanM
45P. KingstonM
90S. GomezM
11A. RusnakM
14P. RothrockM
19D. MusovskiF

Substitutes

24S. FreiG
35A. LopezD
4R. SailorD
39S. HawkinsD
84C. GaffneyM
32X. GnaulatiM
37S. BrunellM
95O. De RosarioF
42R. JaureguiM

Coach: Brian Schmetzer

Austin

12D. LasG
4B. Hines-IkeD
15J. BellD
23Z. KolmanicD
77P. PlachetaM
6I. SanchezM
24J. AlastueyM
19C. FodreyM
11F. TorresF
7J. NelsonF
9B. VazquezF

Substitutes

1B. StuverG
29Guilherme BiroD
2R. Thomas
3M. DeslerD
35M. DjordjevicD
32M. BurtonM
14B. SabovicM
38E. TorresM

Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Austin