Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Kansas City 1-1 St. Louis City.
Before kick-off the model made it 21% Sporting Kansas City, 25% draw, 54% St. Louis City — fair odds of 4.76, 4.00 and 1.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts St. Louis City at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 8J. DavisD
- 15J. MillerD
- 28W. MeyerD
- 18E. KaricD
- 7CapitaM
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 22Z. BassongM
- 11C. HarrisM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 9D. JoveljicF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 57Diego Borges
- 99J. ReidD
- 16J. BartlettD
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 2I. JamesD
- 93S. SuleymanovF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 1R. BurkiG
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 14T. TotlandM
- 77S. JeongF
- 10E. LowenF
- 11S. BecherF
- 39B. LundtG
- 20Rafael SantosD
- 99J. OrozcoD
- 4M. MbackeD
- 28M. PerezM
- 19C. HolseF
- 7T. OstrakM
- 29P. AultM
- 23A. MatanM
Form going into Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
Sporting Kansas City
- L0-2away to Colorado Rapids16 August 2026
- L0-2Houston Dynamo2 August 2026
- L0-4away to Los Angeles FC26 July 2026
- W2-1Minnesota United FC23 July 2026
- L2-3away to St. Louis City17 July 2026
St. Louis City
- W3-1away to San Jose Earthquakes16 August 2026
- D1-1Real Salt Lake2 August 2026
- W1-0Colorado Rapids26 July 2026
- W3-1away to Los Angeles Galaxy23 July 2026
- W3-2Sporting Kansas City17 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City
- 20 August 2026Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 17 July 2026St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 15 May 2025St. Louis City 2–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 6 April 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–0 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- 29 September 2024St. Louis City 3–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 21 July 2024Sporting Kansas City 1–1 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer