Mirassol
vs
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Mirassol 1–0 Atletico Paranaense
The model makes it 43% Mirassol, 27% draw, 30% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Mirassol 1.55, Atletico Paranaense 1.20.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Mirassol's rating is built from 73 Brazilian Serie A matches and Atletico Paranaense's from 34, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,101 matches.
Key facts
- Mirassol are 14th on 41 points from 35 games; Atletico Paranaense are 5th on 54 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Mirassol have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Atletico Mineiro.
- Atletico Paranaense are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Vasco da Gama.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense
Has the model earned this number?
Mirassol at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
Serie A
- D0-0Atletico Mineiro14 November 2026
- W2-1away to Chapecoense3 November 2026
- L0-2away to Corinthians30 October 2026
- D1-1Sao Paulo24 October 2026
- W2-0Internacional16 October 2026
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A
- L1-3Vasco da Gama4 November 2026
- L0-2away to Gremio30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Vitoria24 October 2026
- L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for Mirassol had two goals or fewer.
- Atletico Paranaense conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Paranaense failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mirassol | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 41 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Mirassol vs Atletico Paranaense
- 30 May 2026Atletico Paranaense 1–0 MirassolSerie A
Leading scorers: Mirassol and Atletico Paranaense
Mirassol
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Atletico Paranaense (5th, with Mirassol 14th), while our numbers lean to Mirassol. Mirassol rate 0.79 in attack and 1.09 in defence, Atletico Paranaense 0.98 and 1.24 (lower is better in defence), so Mirassol have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 13-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mirassol the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Mirassol against 1.20 for Atletico Paranaense. Mirassol's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.09 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.98/1.24 for Atletico Paranaense.
How the model reaches 43% for Mirassol to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Mirassol to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, Mirassol's ratings take away 2 points and Atletico Paranaense's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Mirassol's ratings43%−2
- Atletico Paranaense's ratings43%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Mirassol at home · Atletico Paranaense away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Mirassol 35, Atletico Paranaense 34.
Atletico Paranaense score most often in the 0–15 minute window (13 goals); Mirassol have let in 9 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Mirassol
- at Gremio3 Dec · Serie Awin 29%
Atletico Paranaense
- vs Sao Paulo3 Dec · Serie Awin 48%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.