Corinthians
vs
Gremio
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Corinthians 1–0 Gremio
The model makes it 44% Corinthians, 29% draw, 27% Gremio — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Corinthians 1.42, Gremio 0.99.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,958 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Corinthians's rating is built from 72 Brazilian Serie A matches and Gremio's from 72, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,101 matches.
Key facts
- Corinthians are 17th on 37 points from 34 games; Gremio are 18th on 37 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Corinthians have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sao Paulo.
- Gremio have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Flamengo.
- Last 6 meetings: Corinthians 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 30 May 2026, ended Gremio 1–3 Corinthians.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Corinthians vs Gremio
Has the model earned this number?
Corinthians at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Corinthians vs Gremio
Corinthians
Serie A
- D0-0away to Sao Paulo5 November 2026
- W2-0Mirassol30 October 2026
- L2-3away to Vasco da Gama24 October 2026
- D1-1Vitoria19 October 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026
Gremio
Serie A
- L1-3away to Flamengo4 November 2026
- W2-0Atletico Paranaense30 October 2026
- W1-0away to Coritiba26 October 2026
- L2-4Cruzeiro18 October 2026
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
What these results say
- Corinthians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gremio scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Gremio
- 30 May 2026Gremio 1–3 CorinthiansSerie A
- 2 November 2025Corinthians 2–0 GremioSerie A
- 12 June 2025Gremio 1–1 CorinthiansSerie A
- 8 December 2024Gremio 0–3 CorinthiansSerie A
- 8 August 2024Gremio 0–0 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 1 August 2024Corinthians 0–0 GremioCopa Do Brasil
Leading scorers: Corinthians and Gremio
Corinthians
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Corinthians the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Corinthians against 0.99 for Gremio. Corinthians's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.18 for Gremio.
How the model reaches 44% for Corinthians to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Corinthians to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Corinthians's ratings change nothing and Gremio's ratings change nothing, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Corinthians's ratings44%±0
- Gremio's ratings44%±0
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Corinthians at home · Gremio away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Corinthians 34, Gremio 34.
Corinthians score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Gremio have let in 7 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Corinthians
- at Remo3 Dec · Serie Awin 32%
Gremio
- vs Mirassol3 Dec · Serie Awin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.