Monterrey vs Cruz Azul Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Monterrey 1-0 Cruz Azul.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Monterrey, 28% draw, 35% Cruz Azul — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Monterrey at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
Line-ups
- 1E. AndradaG
- 2R. ChavezD
- 4V. GuzmanD
- 19A. AcevesD
- 18C. GarzaD
- 8O. TorresM
- 25O. PinedaM
- 10L. OrellanoM
- 17J. CoronaM
- 7L. OcamposM
- 99H. CuypersF
- 22L. CardenasG
- 33S. MedinaD
- 21L. ReyesD
- 14E. AguirreM
- 30J. RodriguezM
- 11I. FimbresM
- 5F. AmbrizM
- 32U. DjurdjevicF
- 27R. de la RosaF
- 23K. MierG
- 16J. MarquezD
- 4W. DittaD
- 33G. PioviD
- 5J. OrozcoD
- 3O. CamposD
- 20J. ParadelaM
- 6E. LiraM
- 8A. PalavecinoM
- 19C. RodriguezM
- 21G. FernandezF
- 1A. GudinoG
- 2A. MozoD
- 12A. MontesD
- 15R. OrquinD
- 55R. GonzalezM
- 10A. MontanoM
- 60A. Castro
- 7N. IbanezF
- 11C. EbereF
Form going into Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
Monterrey
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Tigres UANL13 September 2026
- L1-3Atletico San Luis31 August 2026
- L0-2away to Leon22 August 2026
- W6-1FC Juarez16 August 2026
- W2-0away to Atlas2 August 2026
Cruz Azul
All competitions we cover
- W4-3Club America13 September 2026
- W1-0Santos Laguna6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Necaxa29 August 2026
- L0-2Atlas23 August 2026
- L1-2away to Club Tijuana17 August 2026
What these results say
- Cruz Azul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monterrey | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 25 | +2 | 24 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 37 | 26 | +11 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Monterrey vs Cruz Azul
- 18 March 2026Cruz Azul 1–1 MonterreyCONCACAF Champions League
- 11 March 2026Monterrey 2–3 Cruz AzulCONCACAF Champions League
- 1 March 2026Monterrey 0–2 Cruz AzulLiga MX
- 26 October 2025Cruz Azul 2–0 MonterreyLiga MX
- 9 March 2025Cruz Azul 1–1 MonterreyLiga MX
Leading scorers: Monterrey and Cruz Azul
Monterrey
GoalsAssists
- L. Ocampos73
- H. Cuypers61
- D. Rossi53
Cruz Azul
GoalsAssists
- A. Montaño65
- N. Ibáñez63
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Monterrey beat Cruz Azul 1–0. The model had made a win for Monterrey its most likely outcome, at 37%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goal: César Garza 7' for Monterrey.
How the call on Monterrey v Cruz Azul has moved
First published on 6 Sep at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 37% / 28% / 35%: the biggest move is Cruz Azul's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Monterrey win37%▲ +1
- Draw28%▲ +2
- Cruz Azul win35%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.