Parma vs Genoa Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Parma 2-1 Genoa.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Parma, 30% draw, 28% Genoa — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Parma at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Parma vs Genoa
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 40Edoardo CorviG
- 34Diego CarlosD
- 37Mariano TroiloD
- 72Dominik DrobnicD
- 15Enrico DelpratoM
- 4Vincent SierroM
- 16Mandela KeitaM
- 14Emanuele ValeriM
- 76Simone LontaniF
- 19El Bilal TouréF
- 9David RomeroF
- 23Nesta ElphegeF
- 11Pontus AlmqvistF
- 80Giovanni FabbianM
- 27Sascha BritschgiD
- 32Christian OrdoñezM
- 30Giovanni DaffaraG
- 22Simone GhidottiG
- 3Abdoulaye NdiayeD
- 47Abdou-Salam KonateM
- 1Justin BijlowG
- 27Alessandro MarcandalliD
- 5Leo ØstigårdD
- 34Sebastian OtoaD
- 3Kingsley EhizibueM
- 32Morten FrendrupM
- 97Djibril SowM
- 77Mikael EllertssonM
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 8Tommaso BaldanziF
- 18Milutin OsmajićF
- 31David PuczkaD
- 92Stephan El ShaarawyF
- 29Lorenzo ColomboF
- 25Hamed Junior TraorèM
- 9VitinhaF
- 99Franz StolzG
- 39Daniele SommarivaG
- 2Mario MitajD
- 16Cody DramehD
Form going into Parma vs Genoa
Parma
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Como14 September 2026
- D1-1Monza6 September 2026
- L0-2away to Juventus29 August 2026
- L0-1Cagliari22 August 2026
Genoa
All competitions we cover
- D1-1Frosinone12 September 2026
- L1-4Como4 September 2026
- L0-1away to Lazio30 August 2026
- L0-2Napoli22 August 2026
What these results say
- Parma did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Parma conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Parma had two goals or fewer.
- Genoa did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Genoa conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Genoa had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Parma | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Parma vs Genoa
- 18 January 2026Parma 0–0 GenoaSerie A
- 19 October 2025Genoa 0–0 ParmaSerie A
- 12 January 2025Genoa 1–0 ParmaSerie A
- 4 November 2024Parma 0–1 GenoaSerie A
- 5 February 2023Parma 2–0 GenoaSerie B
Leading scorers: Parma and Genoa
Parma
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Parma beat Genoa 2–1. The model had made a win for Parma its most likely outcome, at 42%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: D. Romero 38' for Parma, M. Osmajic 70' for Genoa, P. Almqvist 80' for Parma. On expected goals it finished 0.32–0.76.