10 October 2026, 12:00 UTC

Naftan vs Belshina Premier League prediction & result

Atlant Stadium, Novopolotsk
Full time4 – 1

Final score: Naftan 4-1 Belshina.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Naftan, 25% draw, 40% Belshina — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Belshina at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Naftan95%Draw5%Belshina0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽vladislav davydovassist: Arseni Achapovskiy
K. Adamovich
23'
🔁Artem Voskoboynikovout: alexander savitsky
45'
🔁Timur Galimzyanovout: Marlen Aymanov
45'
⚽vadim yakovlevassist: G. Mafwenta
56'
59'
🔁luka zgurskiyout: V Kovalev
59'
🔁alexander shvedchikovout: Pavel Seleznev
⚽vadim yakovlevassist: Roman khadzhiev
69'
70'
🔁Yuri Kozlovout: Nikita Nekrasov
🔁vadim yakovlevout: Artem Drabatovich
76'
A. Stefanishin
78'
Roman khadzhiev
79'
88'
🔁Nikita Golubout: Gleb Yakushevich
88'
🔁vladislav davydovout: Nikita Sokolovskiy
🔁K. Adamovichout: Vladislav Fezhenko
90'
⚽Marlen Aymanovassist: G. Mafwenta
90+3'
⚽Artem Drabatovichassist: alexander savitsky
90+4'

Match stats — Naftan vs Belshina

49%Possession51%
11Shots14
2On target8
1Corners6

Line-ups

Naftan 3-5-2
  • 16D. SadovskiyG
  • 8A. StefanishinD
  • 5Andrey LebedevD
  • 69Roman khadzhievD
  • 97V. ChernyavskiyM
  • 50G. MafwentaM
  • 6K. AdamovichM
  • 24I. SeleznevM
  • 9V. YakovlevM
  • 57T. GalimzyanovF
  • 94A. VoskoboynikovF
Substitutes
  • 30Marlen AymanovF
  • 14I. ChmutD
  • 88A. DrabatovichD
  • 22V. FezhenkoM
  • 13A. KharitonovichG
  • 21K. KirkitskiyM
  • 7A. TumanovD
  • 25Jorge Garcia de la Torre ArmasF
  • 10A. SavitskiyM
Coach: Aleksandr Khrapkovskiy
Belshina 3-5-2
  • 31Pavel PrishivalkoG
  • 3A. KuchinskiyD
  • 6D. LazarevD
  • 17I. VikhrovD
  • 14V. DavydovM
  • 8V. RusenchikM
  • 10Y. KozlovM
  • 21N. GolubM
  • 27L. ZgurskiyM
  • 9A. ShvedchikovF
  • 7A. AchapovskiyF
Substitutes
  • 77V. KovalevM
  • 25A. MakhmudovG
  • 44D. MalashkevichD
  • 15K. MalykhD
  • 18N. NekrasovF
  • 54N. PatsenkoG
  • 5P. SeleznevM
  • 19N. SokolovskiyD
  • 78G. YakushevichD
Coach: Aleksandr Volodko

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Naftan2845192470-4617
13Belshina2866163053-2324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Naftan vs Belshina

  • 23 May 2026Belshina 5–1 NaftanPremier League
  • 30 September 2023Belshina 0–3 NaftanPremier League
  • 14 May 2023Naftan 0–1 BelshinaPremier League
  • 25 September 2021Belshina 4–0 Naftan1. Division
  • 4 August 2021Naftan 0–0 Belshina1. Division
  • 24 April 2021Belshina 1–1 Naftan1. Division

The result against the call

Naftan beat Belshina 4–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Belshina at 40% and given a win for Naftan 35%. The goals: vladislav davydov 5' for Belshina, vadim yakovlev 56' for Naftan, vadim yakovlev 69' for Naftan, Marlen Aymanov 90+3' for Naftan, Artem Drabatovich 90+4' for Naftan.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Belshina a 28.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 17.9% after a win, 31.2% after a draw, 39.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 39.0%, 10.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Naftan v Belshina has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 35% / 27% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 35% / 25% / 40%: the biggest move is Belshina's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Naftan win35%=
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Belshina win40%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.