10 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Neman vs Baranovichi Premier League prediction & result

Stadion Neman, Grodno
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Neman 3-0 Baranovichi.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Neman, 26% draw, 20% Baranovichi — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Neman at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Neman99%Draw1%Baranovichi0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Sergei Pushnyakov
41'
45'
🔁Mikhail Bondarenkoout: E. Torekul
60'
Vladislav Karpenya
62'
🔁Zakhar Gitselevout: Vadim Balbukh
⚽Sergei Pushnyakovassist: Dmitri Girs
64'
🔁Danu Spătaruout: Andrey Yakimov
65'
🔁Ruslan Lisakovichout: Artur Nazarenko
74'
🔁Sergei Pushnyakovout: Anton Suchkov
75'
🔁Pavel Savitskiyout: Andrija Ratkovic
75'
77'
🔁Valeriy·Potorochaout: Alibi Tuzakbayev
77'
🔁Martin Artyukhout: Maksym·Shevchenko
⚽Oleg Evdokimovassist: Andrija Ratkovic
85'
🔁Oleg Evdokimovout: Andrey Vasiljev
86'
Sherif Jimoh
88'

Match stats — Neman vs Baranovichi

58%Possession42%
13Shots5
7On target3
7Corners3

Line-ups

Neman 4-2-3-1
  • 16N. MatysyukG
  • 55D. GirsD
  • 14S. JimohD
  • 20I. SadovnichiyD
  • 8Y. PanteaD
  • 10D. LisakovichM
  • 47M. KozlovM
  • 15O. EvdokimovM
  • 9S. PushnyakovM
  • 33D. SpătaruM
  • 88P. SavitskiyF
Substitutes
  • 19A. DaynekoM
  • 18M. KravtsovF
  • 1A. MalievskiyG
  • 6A. NazarenkoM
  • 32Y. PavlyukovetsM
  • 7A. RatkovićF
  • 17A. SuchkovM
  • 4A. VasiljevD
  • 24A. YakimovM
Coach: I. Kovalevich
Baranovichi 4-2-3-1
  • 12D. ShapkoG
  • 97T. TkachevD
  • 4V. KarpenyaD
  • 19A. BruyD
  • 33Kirill MuzychenkoD
  • 88Z. GitselevM
  • 9E. LapunM
  • 10F. LebedevM
  • 96V. PotorochaM
  • 22M. BondarenkoM
  • 77M. ArtyukhF
Substitutes
  • 8V. BalbukhM
  • 93A. DresmanisG
  • 5V. FedotovD
  • 2S. KendyshD
  • 29S. PenchukM
  • 34A. PetrenkoM
  • 17M. ShevchenkoM
  • 45Ersultan TorekulF
  • 6Alibi TuzakbaevM

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Neman2815493526+949
11Baranovichi2887133045-1531

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Neman vs Baranovichi

  • 24 May 2026Baranovichi 1–2 NemanPremier League
  • 7 March 2026Neman 0–0 BaranovichiFriendlies Clubs
  • 28 June 2023Baranovichi 0–2 NemanCoppa

The result against the call

Neman beat Baranovichi 3–0. The model had made a win for Neman its most likely outcome, at 54%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Sergei Pushnyakov 41' for Neman, Sergei Pushnyakov 64' for Neman, Oleg Evdokimov 85' for Neman.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Neman a 10.2% chance to finish in the top four: 13.3% after a win, 6.0% after a draw, 3.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 13.3%, 3.1 points higher than before the match.

For Baranovichi the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.3% going in: 1.0% after a win, 3.4% after a draw, 5.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.4%, 1.1 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Neman v Baranovichi has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Neman's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Neman win54%▲ +5
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Baranovichi win20%▼ −3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.