Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: Olympique Béja 1-2 ES Sahel.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Olympique Béja, 25% draw, 32% ES Sahel — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Olympique Béja at 43%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 16C. Smaoui
- 3M. Ben Rajeh
- 5H. Mabrouk
- 24Y. Azib
- 12A. Sidibe
- 13M. Ammar
- 21F. Fadhli
- 26I. Ogoulola
- 7R. Homri
- 11E. H. Gafsi
- 29M. W. Djoumekou R.
- 30H. Chairet
- 25C. Camara
- 6M. Hedhli
- 8M. Ali Nefzi
- 20A. Ishimwe
- 10M. H. Hadouchi
- 17B. Hasni
- 19O. Sayari
- 27F. Ben Hssine
- 16S. Ben Hessen
- 2W. Kechrida
- 5P. Lanquetin
- 14N. Ferjani
- 15B. Diarra
- 8O. Abid
- 19M. Bouslama
- 25O. Diakhate
- 7A. Ben Dhiaf
- 20W. Emuwahen
- 30R. Anane
- 36R. Gazzeh
- 33H. Dagdoug
- 10A. Amri
- 22A. Zorgati
- 26M. Hassine
- 34R. Gara
- 17N. Smichi
- 18Y. Rjab
- 28K. Eduwo
Form going into Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
Olympique Béja
Ligue 1
- L1-3away to ES Tunis10 October 2026
- D1-1Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer13 September 2026
- D1-1away to CA Bizertin5 September 2026
ES Sahel
Ligue 1
- L0-1CS Hammam-Lif11 October 2026
- L0-1away to AS Marsa12 September 2026
- D1-1Jeunesse Sportive Omrane6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Olympique Béja | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 10 | ES Sahel | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Olympique Béja vs ES Sahel
- 11 April 2026Olympique Béja 3–1 ES SahelLigue 1
- 22 October 2025ES Sahel 1–2 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 18 January 2025Olympique Béja 0–2 ES SahelLigue 1
- 31 August 2024ES Sahel 0–1 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 28 October 2023ES Sahel 0–0 Olympique BéjaLigue 1
- 23 August 2023Olympique Béja 2–1 ES SahelLigue 1
The result against the call
ES Sahel won 2–1 at Olympique Béja. The model had leaned towards a win for Olympique Béja at 43% and given a win for ES Sahel 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: O. Abid (penalty) 9' for ES Sahel, A. Ben Dhiaf 20' for ES Sahel, I. Ogoulola 36' for Olympique Béja. Sent off: A. Sidibe (Olympique Béja) 90+2'.
How the call on Olympique Béja v ES Sahel has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 43% / 25% / 32%: the biggest move is Olympique Béja's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Olympique Béja win43%▲ +4
- Draw25%▼ −2
- ES Sahel win32%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.