AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui Ligue 1 prediction & result
Final score: AS Marsa 3-0 ES Metlaoui.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% AS Marsa, 29% draw, 26% ES Metlaoui — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
AS Marsa at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Line-ups
- 16H. Ben Cherifia
- 2M. Chaouch
- 34M. Kechiche
- 5O. Bahri
- 17O. Jebali
- 21O. Adejoh
- 6K. Khalfa
- 8A. Gasmi
- 7F. Iffia
- 10M. Hamrouni
- 18N. Mani
- 1M. Ben Braiek
- 20F. Meskini
- 28A. Ben Hamida
- 13A. Traidi
- 25Y. Dao
- 4A. Wadud
- 24O. Mejri
- 30K. Maacha
- 12Y. Boukhris
- 27M. Bejaoui
- 15Y. Soltani
- 18O. Hichri
- 20A. Ghrissi
- 34M. Toumi
- 5M. Belghith
- 8E. Kouassi
- 19C. Bodian
- 23Y. Mrad
- 9O. Naffati
- 14B. Nana
- 16A. Mechri
- 4M. Bouzaabya
- 12I. Glele
- 26A. Tlili
- Y. Sabeur
- 17O. Chebbi
- 28M. Ourimi
- 11A. Jouini
- 29I. Ogba
Form going into AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
AS Marsa
Ligue 1
- D0-0away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane11 October 2026
- W1-0ES Sahel12 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Tunis6 September 2026
ES Metlaoui
Ligue 1
- L1-2Stade Tunisien11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Tunisia Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AS Marsa | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 12 | ES Metlaoui | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
- 13 April 2026ES Metlaoui 1–0 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 19 October 2025AS Marsa 0–1 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 12 May 2024AS Marsa 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 18 February 2024ES Metlaoui 3–1 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 3 January 2024ES Metlaoui 0–1 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 22 October 2023AS Marsa 1–1 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
Leading scorers: AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui
AS Marsa
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
ES Metlaoui
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Bouzaabya10
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
AS Marsa beat ES Metlaoui 3–0. The model had made a win for AS Marsa its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: F. Iffia 38' for AS Marsa, N. Mani (penalty) 45+5' for AS Marsa, A. Traidi 84' for AS Marsa.
How the call on AS Marsa v ES Metlaoui has moved
First published on 6 Oct at 40% / 30% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 45% / 29% / 26%: the biggest move is AS Marsa's chance of winning, up 5 points.
- AS Marsa win45%▲ +5
- Draw29%▼ −1
- ES Metlaoui win26%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.