18 September 2026, 18:00 UTC

PAU vs Dunkerque Ligue 2 prediction & result

Nouste Camp, Pau
Full time2 – 0

Final score: PAU 2-0 Dunkerque.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% PAU, 28% draw, 31% Dunkerque — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PAU at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAU99%Draw1%Dunkerque0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Victor Mayela
Anthony Briançon
16'
17'
🔁Gaëtan Robailout: Bram Lagae
Abdel Hakim Abdallah
32'
⚽Jessy Benet (pen)
49'
52'
Bram Lagae
🔁Axel Bambaout: Axel Dodote
58'
63'
Albert Sánchez Saura
🔁Jeremy Sebasout: Abdoulaye Mbaye
66'
🔁Abdel Hakim Abdallahout: Souleymane Basse
67'
67'
🔁Jordan Morelout: Ousmane Touré
68'
🔁Egor Prutsevout: Enzo Mayilla
77'
🔁Souleymane Keitaout: Pape Dieng
77'
🔁Théna Massockout: Franck Leroy Atoen
81'
Enzo Mayilla
🔁Tom Saettelout: Lorenzo Rajot
83'
⚽Abdoulaye Mbayeassist: Lorenzo Rajot
88'

Match stats — PAU vs Dunkerque

67%Possession33%
22Shots7
10On target3
6Corners2

Line-ups

PAU 5-3-2
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 23A. BriançonD
  • 88A. BambaD
  • 97A. AbdallahD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 18J. SebasM
  • 9B. LeyeF
  • 19T. SaettelF
Substitutes
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 10B. BrahimiM
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 56Abdoulaye MbayeF
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 39M. TourraineD
Coach: Thierry Debes
Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 73Moha AiramG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26Opa SangantéD
  • 22V. MayelaD
  • 24L. VallierD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 18Théna MassockM
  • 7K. AyariM
  • 19S. KeitaM
  • 11E. PrutsevM
  • 9G. RobailF
Substitutes
  • 30AbnerM
  • 16M. PrévotG
  • 33Noah NemorinF
  • 94E. MayillaF
  • 4B. LagaeD
  • 21L. LoussilahoD
  • 17P. M. DiengM
  • 25Franck AtoenM
  • 2O. TouréD
Coach: Albert Sánchez

Form going into PAU vs Dunkerque

PAU

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1away to Montpellier11 September 2026
  • D1-1Sochaux4 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Rodez28 August 2026
  • L0-1Nancy21 August 2026
  • W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026

Dunkerque

All competitions we cover

  • W2-1Saint Etienne12 September 2026
  • D1-1Clermont Foot4 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Nancy28 August 2026
  • L0-1Montpellier21 August 2026
  • D3-3away to Reims14 August 2026

What these results say

  • PAU failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • PAU conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for PAU had two goals or fewer.
  • Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Dunkerque failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5PAU126241613+320
10Dunkerque124351717015

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAU vs Dunkerque

  • 16 January 2026Dunkerque 3–1 PAULigue 2
  • 24 October 2025PAU 0–3 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 10 January 2025PAU 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 20 September 2024Dunkerque 3–2 PAULigue 2
  • 9 March 2024Dunkerque 1–0 PAULigue 2
  • 2 December 2023PAU 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2

Leading scorers: PAU and Dunkerque

PAU

GoalsAssists

  • B. Leye41

Dunkerque

GoalsAssists

  • E. Prutsev32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

PAU beat Dunkerque 2–0. The model had made a win for PAU its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jessy Benet (penalty) 49' for PAU, Abdoulaye Mbaye 88' for PAU. Sent off: Victor Mayela (Dunkerque) 11'.

How the call on PAU v Dunkerque has moved

First published on 4 Sep at 39% / 28% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 41% / 28% / 31%: the biggest move is PAU's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. PAU win41%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%=
  3. Dunkerque win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.