Regular Season - 16 · 21 November 2026, 15:00 UTC

Plymouth vs Peterborough League One prediction

Home Park, Plymouth

Our model says: Plymouth 2–1 Peterborough

The model makes it 53% Plymouth, 25% draw, 22% Peterborough — fair odds of 1.89, 4.00 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Plymouth 1.95, Peterborough 1.09.

Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,154 settled matches.

Edge to Plymouth: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Plymouth's rating is built from 61 League One matches and Peterborough's from 59, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Plymouth are 6th on 23 points from 15 games; Peterborough are 22nd on 10 points from 13 games — League One.
  • Plymouth have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Sheffield Wednesday.
  • Peterborough are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Luton.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 January 2026, ended Peterborough 0–1 Plymouth.

More League One predictions

All League One predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Plymouth vs Peterborough

57%
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
42%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Plymouth win Draw Peterborough win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 2–09%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–16%
  6. 3–06%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Plymouth first; the other scorelines share the remaining 43%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Plymouth at 53%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Plymouth vs Peterborough

Plymouth

League One

  • L0-3away to Sheffield Wednesday14 November 2026
  • D0-0Reading31 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Cambridge United24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Stevenage20 October 2026
  • L0-2Huddersfield17 October 2026

Peterborough

League One

  • L0-2Luton31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bromley24 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
  • D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Plymouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Plymouth failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Plymouth conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Peterborough scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Plymouth157262122-123
22Peterborough132471123-1210

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Peterborough

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 47% today

Win 40%
Draw 46%
Defeat 50%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Plymouth vs Peterborough

  • 17 January 2026Peterborough 0–1 PlymouthLeague One
  • 20 September 2025Plymouth 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
  • 25 February 2023Peterborough 5–2 PlymouthLeague One
  • 13 August 2022Plymouth 2–0 PeterboroughLeague One
  • 10 August 2022Plymouth 0–2 PeterboroughLeague Cup
  • 10 August 2021Peterborough 0–4 PlymouthLeague Cup

Leading scorers: Plymouth and Peterborough

Plymouth

GoalsAssists

  • A. Pepple50

Peterborough

No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Plymouth a 0.9% chance of the title and Peterborough 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Plymouth v Peterborough has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 56% / 24% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 53% / 25% / 22%: the biggest move is Plymouth's chance of winning, down 3 points.

  1. Plymouth win53%▼ −3
  2. Draw25%▲ +1
  3. Peterborough win22%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Plymouth Peterborough
0.62 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.83 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 2.05
1.95 Model expected goals (this match) 1.09

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Plymouth the highest probability at 53%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Plymouth against 1.09 for Peterborough. Plymouth's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.83 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/2.05 for Peterborough.

Plymouth carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.12 for Peterborough.

How the model reaches 53% for Plymouth to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Plymouth to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Plymouth's ratings add 6 points and Peterborough's ratings add 5 points, which lands on the published 53%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Plymouth's ratings48%+6
  4. Peterborough's ratings53%+5

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PlymouthPeterborough
15Matches13
7W 2D 6LRecord2W 4D 7L
21 1.4 per gameGoals scored11 0.8 per game
22 1.5 per gameGoals conceded23 1.8 per game
4 of 15Clean sheets1 of 13
6 of 15Failed to score6 of 13
1 of 1Penalties scored–
22 1.5 per gameYellow cards20 1.5 per game
0Red cards1
4-4-2 11×Usual shape4-2-3-1 12×

Plymouth at home · Peterborough away

7Played7
3W 1D 3LRecord1W 2D 4L
8–7Goals for – against6–14
3 of 7Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Plymouth 15, Peterborough 13.

Plymouth scored 142724
Peterborough conceded 441454

Plymouth score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Peterborough have let in 4 there.

Peterborough scored 202312
Plymouth conceded 254426

Peterborough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Plymouth have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Plymouth

  • at Wigan28 Nov · League Onewin 40%
  • vs Bromley1 Dec · League Onewin 66%
  • at Notts County12 Dec · League Onewin 30%
  • vs Mansfield Town19 Dec · League Onewin 41%
  • at Oxford United26 Dec · League Onewin 21%

Peterborough

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.