Regular Season - 17 · 28 November 2026, 12:30 UTC

Peterborough vs Cambridge United League One prediction

Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough

Our model says: Peterborough 1–2 Cambridge United

The model makes it 36% Peterborough, 27% draw, 37% Cambridge United — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

Expected goals: Peterborough 1.44, Cambridge United 1.47.

Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

A tight game: Peterborough and Cambridge United are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Peterborough's rating is built from 59 League One matches and Cambridge United's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,277 matches.

Key facts

  • Peterborough are 22nd on 10 points from 13 games; Cambridge United are 10th on 21 points from 14 games — League One.
  • Peterborough are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Luton.
  • Cambridge United are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Leyton Orient.
  • Last 6 meetings: Peterborough 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 March 2025, ended Cambridge United 0–1 Peterborough.

More League One predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Peterborough vs Cambridge United

59%
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
44%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Peterborough win Draw Cambridge United win
  1. 1–112%
  2. 1–28%
  3. 2–18%
  4. 0–17%
  5. 1–07%
  6. 2–26%
  7. 0–06%

Scores read Peterborough first; the other scorelines share the remaining 45%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Cambridge United at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Peterborough vs Cambridge United

Peterborough

League One

  • L0-2Luton31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Bromley24 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Huddersfield20 October 2026
  • D2-2Burton Albion17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Leicester10 October 2026

Cambridge United

League One

  • L0-3away to Leyton Orient31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sheffield Wednesday27 October 2026
  • L2-3Plymouth24 October 2026
  • D2-2Wycombe20 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Barnsley17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Peterborough conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Peterborough failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Peterborough scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cambridge United conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Cambridge United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Cambridge United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
22Peterborough132471123-1210
10Cambridge United145632121021

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Peterborough

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 47% today

Win 41%
Draw 48%
Defeat 52%

From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Peterborough vs Cambridge United

  • 15 March 2025Cambridge United 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
  • 9 November 2024Peterborough 6–1 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • 24 February 2024Cambridge United 0–1 PeterboroughLeague One
  • 11 November 2023Peterborough 5–0 Cambridge UnitedLeague One
  • 12 September 2023Peterborough 2–0 Cambridge UnitedEFL Trophy
  • 15 April 2023Cambridge United 2–0 PeterboroughLeague One

Leading scorers: Peterborough and Cambridge United

Peterborough

No player in League One's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Cambridge United

GoalsAssists

  • B. Knight42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Peterborough a 0% chance of the title and Cambridge United 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Peterborough Cambridge United
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.58
2.05 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.95
1.44 Model expected goals (this match) 1.47

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Cambridge United the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Peterborough against 1.47 for Cambridge United. Peterborough's attack/defence rating is 0.48/2.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.95 for Cambridge United.

Peterborough carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.25 for Cambridge United. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Cambridge United to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Cambridge United to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Peterborough's ratings add 3 points and Cambridge United's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage31%−5
  3. Peterborough's ratings34%+3
  4. Cambridge United's ratings37%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

PeterboroughCambridge United
13Matches14
2W 4D 7LRecord5W 6D 3L
11 0.8 per gameGoals scored21 1.5 per game
23 1.8 per gameGoals conceded21 1.5 per game
1 of 13Clean sheets1 of 14
6 of 13Failed to score1 of 14
–Penalties scored–
20 1.5 per gameYellow cards27 1.9 per game
1Red cards0
4-2-3-1 12×Usual shape3-4-2-1 8×

Peterborough at home · Cambridge United away

6Played7
1W 2D 3LRecord2W 4D 1L
5–9Goals for – against9–10
1 of 6Clean sheets0 of 7

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Peterborough 13, Cambridge United 14.

Peterborough scored 202312
Cambridge United conceded 124356

Peterborough score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Cambridge United have let in 3 there.

Cambridge United scored 103647
Peterborough conceded 441454

Cambridge United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Peterborough have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Peterborough

  • at Leyton Orient1 Dec · League Onewin 24%
  • vs Barnsley12 Dec · League Onewin 42%

Cambridge United

  • vs Leicester1 Dec · League Onewin 39%
  • at Milton Keynes Dons12 Dec · League Onewin 26%
  • vs Stevenage18 Dec · League Onewin 38%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.