Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Puebla 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Puebla, 25% draw, 48% Guadalajara Chivas — fair odds of 3.70, 4.00 and 2.08.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Guadalajara Chivas at 48%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 28Daniel GutierrezG
- 12Iker MorenoD
- 5Facundo AlmadaD
- 4Juan Pablo VargasD
- 7Fernando MonarrezD
- 24Alejandro OrganistaM
- 21Sergio SanabriaM
- 26Kevin VelascoM
- 22Carlos BaltazarM
- 11Emiliano GómezM
- 29Eduardo MustreF
- 10Mathías TomásM
- 9Luifer HernándezF
- 15Óscar VillaD
- 8Omar MorenoF
- 33Jesús RodríguezG
- 2Angel LeyvaD
- 3Alberto HerreraM
- 34Lucas CamiloM
- 16Alonso RamirezM
- 1Raúl RangelG
- 23Daniel AguirreD
- 7Luis RomoD
- 2José CastilloD
- 28Fernando GonzálezM
- 37Richard LedezmaM
- 11Brian GutiérrezM
- 33Jordan CarrilloM
- 5Bryan GonzálezM
- 25Roberto AlvaradoF
- 34Armando GonzálezF
- 6Omar GoveaM
- 10Efrain AlvarezF
- 9Ángel SepúlvedaF
- 19Kevin CastañedaM
- 17Ricardo MarínF
- 13Óscar WhalleyG
- 3Diego CampilloD
- 24Miguel GómezD
- 18Jonathan PerezM
Form going into Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
Puebla
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Cruz Azul22 July 2026
- W1-0away to FC Juarez18 July 2026
Guadalajara Chivas
All competitions we cover
- W1-0FC Juarez25 July 2026
- L0-2Toluca19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Puebla | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 19 |
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 15 | +11 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Puebla vs Guadalajara Chivas
- 19 April 2026Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 27 September 2025Puebla 0–2 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 16 April 2025Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 PueblaLiga MX
- 26 October 2024Puebla 1–0 Guadalajara ChivasLiga MX
- 7 April 2024Guadalajara Chivas 3–2 PueblaLiga MX
The result against the call
Puebla and Guadalajara Chivas drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Guadalajara Chivas at 48% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: E. Mustre 26' for Puebla, R. Alvarado 63' for Guadalajara Chivas. On expected goals it finished 0.59–1.86.