FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: FC Juarez 1-5 Pumas UNAM.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% FC Juarez, 26% draw, 39% Pumas UNAM — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Pumas UNAM at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Sebastián JuradoG
- 33Francisco NevarezD
- 2Gilberto SepúlvedaD
- 3Jesús MurilloD
- 23Haret OrtegaD
- 4Alejandro MayorgaD
- 10Jairo TorresM
- 5Denzell GarciaM
- 8Guilherme CastilhoM
- 11José Luis RodríguezM
- 19Óscar EstupiñánF
- 6MonchuM
- 198Ricardo JuárezD
- 201Jan CarmonaM
- 7Raymundo FulgencioM
- 29Ettson AyónF
- 27Guillermo RuizG
- 20Javier AquinoM
- 250Brayan MolinaM
- 183Leonardo RodríguezM
- 1Keylor NavasG
- 7Rodrigo LopezD
- 6Nathan SilvaD
- 5Rubén DuarteD
- 77Álvaro AnguloD
- 18Victor ArteagaM
- 45Pedro ViteM
- 21Uriel AntunaM
- 17Sebastián CórdovaM
- 23JuninhoM
- 31Robert MoralesF
- 22Alan MedinaF
- 8Adalberto CarrasquillaM
- 14Luciano HerreraF
- 9Guillermo MartínezF
- 20Santiago TrigosM
- 35Pablo LaraG
- 34Angel AzuajeD
- 24Antonio LeoneD
- 2Pablo BennevendoD
Form going into FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM
FC Juarez
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Guadalajara Chivas25 July 2026
- L0-1Puebla18 July 2026
Pumas UNAM
All competitions we cover
- W2-1away to Toluca22 July 2026
- L0-3CF Pachuca18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | FC Juarez | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Juarez vs Pumas UNAM
- 22 April 2026Pumas UNAM 4–2 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 24 September 2025FC Juarez 3–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 28 April 2025FC Juarez 1–1 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
- 12 April 2025Pumas UNAM 0–0 FC JuarezLiga MX
- 18 July 2024FC Juarez 1–2 Pumas UNAMLiga MX
Leading scorers: FC Juarez and Pumas UNAM
FC Juarez
GoalsAssists
- Ó. Estupiñán80
Pumas UNAM
GoalsAssists
- Juninho91
- R. Morales54
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Pumas UNAM won 5–1 at FC Juarez. The model had made a win for Pumas UNAM its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Juninho (penalty) 18' for Pumas UNAM, Juninho 22' for Pumas UNAM, R. Morales 40' for Pumas UNAM, J. Rodriguez 45+4' for FC Juarez, Juninho 48' for Pumas UNAM, G. Martinez 83' for Pumas UNAM. On expected goals it finished 0.40–2.70.