12 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Torino vs Udinese Serie A prediction & result

Stadio Olimpico di Torino, Turin
Referee: Valerio Crezzini
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Torino 2-1 Udinese.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Torino, 27% draw, 38% Udinese — fair odds of 2.86, 3.70 and 2.63.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Udinese at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Torino96%Draw4%Udinese0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daniel Bragança
36'
43'
⚽Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
🔁Ricardo Rodríguezout: Ardian Ismajli
45'
🔁Gaetano Oristanioout: Nikola Vlašić
54'
🔁Daniel Bragançaout: Emirhan İlkhan
54'
60'
🔁James Abankwahout: Nicolo Bertola
🔁Che Adamsout: Sandro Kulenović
64'
⚽Sandro Kulenović
67'
72'
🔁Oier Zarragaout: Lazar Jovanovic
72'
🔁Unai Gómezout: Keinan Davis
72'
🔁Mergim Vojvodaout: David Alaba
🔁Emirhan İlkhanout: Gvidas Gineitis
77'
81'
🔁Hassane Kamaraout: Juan Arizala
89'
Nicolo Bertola

Match stats — Torino vs Udinese

38%Possession62%
12Shots15
4On target1
4Corners3
2.47xG0.72

Goals against chances

Torino2 from 2.47 xGabout what the chances were worth
Udinese1 from 0.72 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Torino 3-4-2-1
  • 20Lucas PerriG
  • 15P. ComuzzoD
  • 23Saúl CocoD
  • 13R. RodríguezD
  • 45R. BelghaliM
  • 8R. MandragoraM
  • 21Daniel BragançaM
  • 77A. CacciamaniM
  • 11G. OristanioM
  • 19C. AdamsM
  • 18G. SimeoneF
Substitutes
  • 22C. CasadeiM
  • 91D. ZapataF
  • 10N. VlašićM
  • 76L. SivieroG
  • 9P. PellegriF
  • 2N. PattersonD
  • 26D. MascardiG
  • 17S. KulenovićF
  • 44A. IsmajliD
Coach: Ignazio Abate
Udinese 3-4-2-1
  • 40M. OkoyeG
  • 14J. AbankwahD
  • 28O. SoletD
  • 77E. EbosseD
  • 23M. VojvodaM
  • 8J. KarlströmM
  • 6Oier ZarragaM
  • 11H. KamaraM
  • 32J. EkkelenkampM
  • 30G. ChakvetadzeM
  • 46Unai GómezF
Substitutes
  • 13N. BertolaD
  • 9K. DavisF
  • 91L. JovanovićF
  • 27C. KabaseleD
  • 4S. LovrićM
  • 38L. MillerM
  • 41B. MrozekG
  • 93D. PadelliG
  • 20J. ArizalaM
Coach: K. Runjaic

Form going into Torino vs Udinese

Torino

All competitions we cover

  • D1-1away to Bologna19 September 2026
  • L0-2AS Roma14 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Fiorentina5 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Sassuolo29 August 2026
  • L1-2AC Milan23 August 2026

Udinese

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Cagliari19 September 2026
  • L3-5away to Inter14 September 2026
  • L1-2Lazio7 September 2026
  • W3-2away to Monza29 August 2026
  • D1-1Como22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Torino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Torino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Torino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Udinese conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Udinese failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Udinese scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Torino114251517-214
20Udinese111281225-135

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Torino vs Udinese

  • 2 May 2026Udinese 2–0 TorinoSerie A
  • 7 January 2026Torino 1–2 UdineseSerie A
  • 23 April 2025Torino 2–0 UdineseSerie A
  • 29 December 2024Udinese 2–2 TorinoSerie A
  • 16 March 2024Udinese 0–2 TorinoSerie A

The full Torino vs Udinese record →

Leading scorers: Torino and Udinese

Torino

GoalsAssists

  • C. Adams40

Udinese

No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Torino beat Udinese 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Udinese at 38% and given a win for Torino 35%. The goals: Daniel Bragança 36' for Torino, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 43' for Udinese, Sandro Kulenović 67' for Torino. On expected goals it finished 2.47–0.72.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Torino a 16.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 11.5% after a win, 17.0% after a draw, 19.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.5%, 5 points lower than before the match.

For Udinese the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.1% going in: 5.0% after a win, 8.0% after a draw, 10.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.6%, 2.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Torino v Udinese has moved

First published on 28 Sep at 34% / 29% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 35% / 27% / 38%: the biggest move is the draw, down 2 points.

  1. Torino win35%▲ +1
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Udinese win38%▲ +1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.