12 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Radom
Referee: Tomasz Kwiatkowski
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Radomiak Radom 2-3 Motor Lublin.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Radomiak Radom, 28% draw, 34% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Radomiak Radom at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Radomiak Radom4%Draw92%Motor Lublin4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
Christopher Simon
18'
Kamil Lukoszek
23'
Bartosz Bereszyński
⚽Filip Koperskiassist: Jan Grzesik
24'
Christos Donis
33'
38'
Makan Aiko
🔁Elves Baldéout: Lucas Lima Linhares
45'
53'
⚽Mbaye Jacques Ndiayeassist: Makan Aiko
61'
🔁Makan Aikoout: Fabio Ronaldo Costa Conceicao
61'
🔁Bartosz Bereszyńskiout: Marek Kristian Bartos
🔁Bi Irié Fernand Gouréout: Guilherme Luiz
61'
🔁Rafał Wolskiout: Abdoul Tapsoba
62'
70'
⚽Karol Czubak (pen)
🔁Roberto Oliveira Alvesout: Ibrahima Camará
73'
77'
🔁Rony Lopesout: Mateusz Legowski
⚽Steve Kingueassist: Ibrahima Camará
80'
🔁Ronaldo Lumungoout: Manu
83'
Lucas Lima Linhares
84'
86'
Marek Kristian Bartos
87'
🔁Yacine Bourhaneout: Paskal Konrad Meyer
90+2'
⚽Christopher Simon

Match stats — Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin

45%Possession55%
6Shots22
2On target11
3Corners5
0.9xG2.6

Goals against chances

Radomiak Radom2 from 0.90 xGmore than the chances were worth
Motor Lublin3 from 2.60 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Radomiak Radom 4-2-3-1
  • 1F. MajchrowiczG
  • 3K. SzcześniakD
  • 14S. KingueD
  • 72F. KoperskiD
  • 13J. GrzesikD
  • 10R. AlvesM
  • 77C. DonisM
  • 90Ronaldo AfonsoM
  • 27R. WolskiM
  • 21ElvesM
  • 11F. GouréF
Substitutes
  • 8I. CamaráM
  • 18ManuF
  • 26Adrián DiéguezD
  • 99B. GradeckiG
  • 23K. KarasekM
  • 82LuquinhasM
  • 7C. NunnelyF
  • 80Guilherme LuizF
  • 28Romário BaróM
Coach: John Carver
Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1
  • 33G. TratnikG
  • 17K. LukoszekD
  • 18B. BereszyńskiD
  • 4T. PlavotićD
  • 24F. LubereckiD
  • 27Y. BourhaneM
  • 30M. NdiayeM
  • 9Rony LopesM
  • 8C. SimonM
  • 70M. AïkoM
  • 10K. CzubakF
Substitutes
  • 5A. AkatovD
  • 39M. BartošD
  • 90Dominik GregorskiF
  • 23F. HaxhaM
  • 2Paskal Konrad MeyerD
  • 71M. PopaG
  • 77Mateusz PosmykF
  • 29T. SantosD
  • 47Alioune TallM
Coach: M. Misiura

Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin

Radomiak Radom

All competitions we cover

  • L1-5away to Lech Poznan20 September 2026
  • L0-2Piast Gliwice14 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Widzew Łódź5 September 2026
  • W2-1Cracovia Krakow29 August 2026
  • D0-0Zaglebie Lubin23 August 2026

Motor Lublin

All competitions we cover

  • D0-0Gornik Zabrze19 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Raków Częstochowa11 September 2026
  • L2-3Legia Warszawa5 September 2026
  • L0-2Piast Gliwice29 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Korona Kielce22 August 2026

What these results say

  • Radomiak Radom failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Motor Lublin did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Motor Lublin conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Radomiak Radom144281729-1214
10Motor Lublin145452224-219

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Motor Lublin

  • 6 April 2026Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 29 September 2025Motor Lublin 2–2 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 24 May 2025Radomiak Radom 2–3 Motor LublinEkstraklasa
  • 2 December 2024Motor Lublin 1–0 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
  • 12 July 2024Radomiak Radom 1–1 Motor LublinFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Motor Lublin

Radomiak Radom

GoalsAssists

  • J. Grzesik53

Motor Lublin

GoalsAssists

  • K. Czubak70
  • M. Ndiaye43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Motor Lublin won 3–2 at Radomiak Radom. The model had leaned towards a win for Radomiak Radom at 38% and given a win for Motor Lublin 34%. The goals: Filip Koperski 24' for Radomiak Radom, Mbaye Jacques Ndiaye 53' for Motor Lublin, Karol Czubak (penalty) 70' for Motor Lublin, Steve Kingue 80' for Radomiak Radom, Christopher Simon 90+2' for Motor Lublin. On expected goals it finished 0.90–2.60.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Radomiak Radom a 54.5% chance to finish in the bottom three: 46.1% after a win, 57.5% after a draw, 62.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 62.2%, 7.7 points higher than before the match.

For Motor Lublin the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.8% going in: 30.4% after a win, 38.9% after a draw, 43.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 30.4%, 7.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.