16 October 2026, 18:30 UTC

Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow Ekstraklasa prediction & result

Lodz
Referee: Marcin Szczerbowicz
Full time0 – 0

Final score: Widzew Łódź 0-0 Wisla Krakow.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Widzew Łódź, 28% draw, 34% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Widzew Łódź at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Widzew Łódź4%Draw92%Wisla Krakow4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Giannis Papanikolaou
23'
🔁Giannis Papanikolaouout: Lindon Selahi
45'
🔁Fran Alvarezout: Juljan Shehu
45'
mariusz fornalczyk
48'
62'
•jakub krzyzanowski
66'
⚽Angel·Rodado (pen)
🔁Dani Silvaout: Emil Kornvig
67'
🔁mariusz fornalczykout: Darian Males
67'
72'
🔁Julian Lelieveldout: Thody Elie Youan
73'
🔁James Igbekemeout: Marc Carbo
🔁Karol Świderskiout: Ioan Vermeșan
76'
Lindon Selahi
90'
Juljan Shehu
90+3'

Match stats — Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow

46%Possession54%
10Shots21
3On target4
4Corners7
0.66xG2.56

Goals against chances

Widzew Łódź0 from 0.66 xGless than the chances were worth
Wisla Krakow0 from 2.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Widzew Łódź 4-1-4-1
  • 1B. DrągowskiG
  • 70J. GazibegovićD
  • 25P. WiśniewskiD
  • 14VisusD
  • 3S. KapuadiD
  • 5G. PapanikolaouM
  • 79S. BiukM
  • 10Fran ÁlvarezM
  • 80Dani SilvaM
  • 7M. FornalczykM
  • 28K. ŚwiderskiF
Substitutes
  • 18L. SelahiM
  • 8E. KornvigM
  • 19D. MalesM
  • 91M. KrajewskiD
  • 20A. KlukowskiM
  • 30V. IlićG
  • 48Franciszek GolańskiG
  • 17C. ChengD
  • 6J. ShehuM
Coach: M. Stolarski
Wisla Krakow 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. ŁubikG
  • 34R. GigerD
  • 6A. UrygaD
  • 29D. GrujčićD
  • 52J. KrzyżanowskiD
  • 41K. DudaM
  • 12J. IgbekemeM
  • 10Frederico DuarteM
  • 7J. ErtlthalerM
  • 2J. LelieveldM
  • 9Ángel RodadoF
Substitutes
  • 27É. YouanF
  • 32Oliwier PlawinskiM
  • 93B. NeugebauerG
  • 4R. MikulecD
  • 23Víctor MeseguerM
  • 13M. MaisonneuveD
  • 50M. KutwaD
  • 8Marc CarbóM
  • 97W. BiedrzyckiD
Coach: M. Jop

Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow

Widzew Łódź

Ekstraklasa

  • L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026

Wisla Krakow

Ekstraklasa

  • L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Widzew Łódź142842019+114
5Wisla Krakow147342219+324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Wisla Krakow

  • 28 February 2024Wisla Krakow 2–1 Widzew ŁódźCup
  • 2 December 2021Widzew Łódź 1–3 Wisla KrakowCup

Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow

Widzew Łódź

GoalsAssists

  • K. Świderski51

Wisla Krakow

GoalsAssists

  • Ángel Rodado41

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Widzew Łódź and Wisla Krakow drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Widzew Łódź at 38% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.66–2.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Widzew Łódź a 14.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 10.7% after a win, 16.2% after a draw, 18.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 16.2%, 1.3 points higher than before the match.

For Wisla Krakow the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 24.6% going in: 29.7% after a win, 23.9% after a draw, 20.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 23.9%, 0.7 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ekstraklasa season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Widzew Łódź v Wisla Krakow has moved

First published on 2 Oct at 36% / 29% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is Widzew Łódź's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Widzew Łódź win38%▲ +2
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Wisla Krakow win34%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.