20 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves La Liga prediction & result

Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Rayo Vallecano, 22% draw, 37% Alaves — fair odds of 2.44, 4.55 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rayo Vallecano at 41% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rayo Vallecano6%Draw89%Alaves5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁I. Palazonout: R. Nteka
17'
•Pelayo Fernández
36'
45+2'
Nahuel Tenaglia
⚽S. Camelloassist: J. de Frutos
48'
🔁F. Perezout: A. Garcia
55'
🔁P. Fernandezout: O. Valentin
55'
🔁A. Batallaout: D. Cardenas
60'
62'
🔁M. Rodriguezout: D. Suarez
62'
🔁L. Boyeout: M. Diaz
70'
🔁Jonny Ottoout: Yusi
Sergio Camello
73'
80'
🔁V. Koskiout: N. Valentini
80'
🔁A. Perezout: C. Alena
84'
⚽M. Diaz
90+2'
Nicolás Valentini

Match stats — Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

48%Possession52%
8Shots15
3On target3
9Corners7
0.43xG1.92

Goals against chances

Rayo Vallecano1 from 0.43 xGmore than the chances were worth
Alaves1 from 1.92 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rayo Vallecano 4-1-4-1
  • 13A. BatallaG
  • 2A. RatiuD
  • 24F. LejeuneD
  • 22P. FernandezD
  • 33J. VertrouwdD
  • 6P. CissM
  • 19J. de FrutosM
  • 7I. PalazonM
  • 8U. LopezM
  • 21F. PerezM
  • 10S. CamelloF
Substitutes
  • 1D. CardenasG
  • 20I. BalliuD
  • 26M. de las SiasD
  • 27S. Lozano
  • 18A. GarciaM
  • 4P. DiazM
  • 23O. ValentinM
  • 11R. NtekaM
  • 34I. Alonso MartinD
Coach: Benat San Jose
Alaves 5-3-2
  • 1A. SiveraG
  • 7A. PerezD
  • 14N. TenagliaD
  • 16V. KoskiD
  • 17Jonny OttoD
  • 21A. RebbachD
  • 19P. IbanezM
  • 8A. BlancoM
  • 18M. Rodriguez
  • 15L. BoyeF
  • 11T. MartinezF
Substitutes
  • 13A. RodriguezG
  • 2N. ValentiniD
  • 3YusiD
  • 12H. Novoa RamosF
  • 4D. SuarezM
  • 10C. AlenaM
  • 23C. ProtesoniM
  • 6A. GuevaraM
  • 20A. Manas
Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores

Form going into Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Rayo Vallecano

  • L1-2away to Sevilla15 August 2026

Alaves

  • W3-0Getafe15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Rayo Vallecano62131015-57
6Alaves6312116+510

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

  • 20 August 2026Rayo Vallecano 1–1 AlavesLa Liga
  • 23 May 2026Alaves 1–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 14 January 2026Alaves 2–0 Rayo VallecanoCopa del Rey
  • 26 October 2025Rayo Vallecano 1–0 AlavesLa Liga
  • 29 March 2025Alaves 0–2 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
  • 26 October 2024Rayo Vallecano 1–0 AlavesLa Liga

Leading scorers: Rayo Vallecano and Alaves

Rayo Vallecano

  • Sergio Camello6 goals1 assists
  • Álvaro García2 goals2 assists

Alaves

  • L. Boyé4 goals
  • M. Díaz3 goals3 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.