21 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Real Betis vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result

Estadio de La Cartuja, Sevilla
Full time1 0

Final score: Real Betis 1-0 Real Sociedad.

Before kick-off the model made it 67% Real Betis, 16% draw, 17% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Real Betis at 67% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Real Betis96%Draw4%Real Sociedad0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

46'
Sergio Gómez
49'
Jon Aramburu
🔁Facundo Bernalout: Isco
58'
58'
🔁Takefusa Kuboout: Mikel Oyarzabal
58'
🔁Ander Barrenetxeaout: Alex Marchal
61'
Igor Zubeldia
Rodrigo Riquelmeassist: Cucho Hernández
63'
72'
🔁Sergio Gómezout: Aihen Muñoz
72'
🔁Yangel Herreraout: Beñat Turrientes
🔁Rodrigo Riquelmeout: Pablo García
73'
Natan
80'
🔁Cucho Hernándezout: Nelson Deossa
80'
87'
🔁Luka Sučićout: Arsen Zakharyan
Héctor Bellerín
90+2'
Fran García
90'

Match stats — Real Betis vs Real Sociedad

48%Possession52%
18Shots9
7On target3
4Corners5
1.06xG1.4

Goals against chances

Real Betis1 from 1.06 xGabout what the chances were worth
Real Sociedad0 from 1.40 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Real Betis 4-2-3-1
  • 1Álvaro VallesG
  • 2Héctor BellerínD
  • 5Marc BartraD
  • 4NatanD
  • 11Fran GarcíaD
  • 6Facundo BernalM
  • 21Marc RocaM
  • 7AntonyM
  • 8Pablo FornalsM
  • 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
  • 9Cucho HernándezF
Substitutes
  • 22IscoM
  • 33Pablo GarcíaF
  • 18Nelson DeossaM
  • 31Manu GonzálezG
  • 12Angel OrtizD
  • 16Valentín GómezD
  • 23Junior FirpoD
  • 3Diego LlorenteD
  • 14Iker LosadaF
Coach: Manuel Pellegrini
Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1
  • 1Álex RemiroG
  • 2Jon AramburuD
  • 5Igor ZubeldiaD
  • 31Jon MartinD
  • 17Sergio GómezD
  • 21Yangel HerreraM
  • 18Carlos SolerM
  • 14Takefusa KuboM
  • 24Luka SučićM
  • 7Ander BarrenetxeaM
  • 9Orri ÓskarssonF
Substitutes
  • 29Alex MarchalF
  • 10Mikel OyarzabalF
  • 3Aihen MuñozD
  • 8Beñat TurrientesM
  • 23Arsen ZakharyanM
  • 13Unai MarreroG
  • 34Luken BeitiaD
  • 16Jon PachecoD
  • 22Mikel GotiM
Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Real Betis540176+112
12Real Sociedad6213611-57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Real Sociedad

  • 21 August 2026Real Betis 1–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 9 May 2026Real Sociedad 2–2 Real BetisLa Liga
  • 19 September 2025Real Betis 3–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 16 February 2025Real Betis 3–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
  • 1 December 2024Real Sociedad 2–0 Real BetisLa Liga
  • 19 May 2024Real Betis 0–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.