Real Betis vs Real Sociedad La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Betis 1-0 Real Sociedad.
Before kick-off the model made it 67% Real Betis, 16% draw, 17% Real Sociedad — fair odds of 1.49, 6.25 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Betis at 67% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Betis vs Real Sociedad
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Álvaro VallesG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 5Marc BartraD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 6Facundo BernalM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 7AntonyM
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 9Cucho HernándezF
- 22IscoM
- 33Pablo GarcíaF
- 18Nelson DeossaM
- 31Manu GonzálezG
- 12Angel OrtizD
- 16Valentín GómezD
- 23Junior FirpoD
- 3Diego LlorenteD
- 14Iker LosadaF
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2Jon AramburuD
- 5Igor ZubeldiaD
- 31Jon MartinD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 21Yangel HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 14Takefusa KuboM
- 24Luka SučićM
- 7Ander BarrenetxeaM
- 9Orri ÓskarssonF
- 29Alex MarchalF
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 23Arsen ZakharyanM
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 22Mikel GotiM
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Betis | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 |
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Betis vs Real Sociedad
- 21 August 2026Real Betis 1–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 9 May 2026Real Sociedad 2–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 19 September 2025Real Betis 3–1 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 16 February 2025Real Betis 3–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 1 December 2024Real Sociedad 2–0 Real BetisLa Liga
- 19 May 2024Real Betis 0–2 Real SociedadLa Liga