Racing Santander vs Villarreal La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Racing Santander 2-2 Villarreal.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Racing Santander, 17% draw, 34% Villarreal — fair odds of 2.04, 5.88 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Racing Santander at 49% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 1123 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Racing Santander vs Villarreal
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 13Julen AgirrezabalaG
- 2Alvaro MantillaD
- 22Pedro FelipeD
- 5Pablo RamónD
- 17Jorge SalinasD
- 8Gustavo PuertaM
- 36Sergio MartinezM
- 11Andrés MartínM
- 20Sergio CanalesM
- 10Iñigo VicenteM
- 12Asier VillalibreF
- 4Manu HernandoD
- 1Simon ErikssonG
- 16Facundo GonzálezD
- 30Carlos SánchezD
- 14Maguette GueyeM
- 29Andrés VallecilloM
- 34Diego DíazM
- 38Hugo MartínM
- 33Jorge CastellanosM
- 1Luiz JúniorG
- 15Santiago MouriñoD
- 8Juan FoythD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 19Nicolas PépéM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 18Pape GueyeM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 22Ayoze PérezF
- 9Georges MikautadzeF
- 26Carlos MaciáM
- 17Tajon BuchananF
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 25Péter GulácsiG
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 5Willy KambwalaD
- 3Alexander FreemanD
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 2Logan CostaD
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Racing Santander | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Villarreal
- 16 August 2026Racing Santander 2–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 17 December 2025Racing Santander 2–1 VillarrealCopa del Rey
- 15 April 2012Villarreal 1–1 Racing SantanderLa Liga
- 3 December 2011Racing Santander 1–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 27 February 2011Racing Santander 2–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 3 October 2010Villarreal 2–0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
Leading scorers: Racing Santander and Villarreal
Racing Santander
- M. Zabiri6 goals
Villarreal
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.