17 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche La Liga prediction & result

Estadio Municipal de Riazor

Full time1 – 1

Final score: Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Elche.

Before kick-off the model made it 78% Deportivo La Coruna, 13% draw, 9% Elche — fair odds of 1.28, 7.69 and 11.11. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published 29 August 2026 · updated 17 September 2026

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Deportivo La Coruna at 78% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Deportivo La Coruna8%Draw89%Elche3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽P. Aubameyangassist: L. Amatucci

21'

Ximo Navarro

26'

Lorenzo Amatucci

45+1'

🔁J. Aspout: D. Villares

60'

🔁B. Nsongoout: Z. Eddahchouri

60'

🔁F. Redondo Solariout: Tete Morente

60'

🔁M. Netoout: L. Cepeda

67'

Gonzalo Villar

69'

🔁F. Ninoout: U. Konare

🔁A. Altimiraout: Cruz Luismi

71'

🔁M. Sorianoout: D. Mella

71'

76'

⚽M. Aguadoassist: G. Villar

81'

🔁A. Houaryout: J. Morcillo

81'

🔁G. Valeraout: A. Padilla

🔁P. Aubameyangout: K. Sanchez

85'

87'

Umaru Konare Tounkara

Match stats — Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche

39%Possession61%

8Shots11

3On target6

2Corners6

0.34xG1.41

Goals against chances

Deportivo La Coruna1 from 0.34 xGmore than the chances were worth

Elche1 from 1.41 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Deportivo La Coruna 4-2-3-1

13L. RomanG
23X. NavarroD
4L. NoubiD
22B. EdeD
12G. QuagliataD
21M. SorianoM
16L. AmatucciM
2A. AltimiraM
32B. NsongoM
18J. AspM
7P. AubameyangF

Substitutes

1G. ParrenoG
25A. FernandezG
15M. LoureiroD
24AngelinoD
3A. ComasD
14R. RodriguezM
8D. VillaresM
34T. GijselhartM
9Z. EddahchouriF

Coach: Antonio Hidalgo

Elche 5-4-1

1M. DituroG
2Buba SangareD
22D. AffengruberD
5F. Redondo SolariD
23V. ChustD
11G. ValeraD
12G. VillarM
16M. NetoM
8M. AguadoM
29A. HouaryM
14F. NinoF

Substitutes

43A. IturbeG
26M. BarzicD
6P. BigasD
47J. MorcilloM
10F. BuonanotteM
9E. PonceF
17JosanM
33M. NordinF
20Tete MorenteF

Coach: Martin Anselmi

La Liga table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
7	Deportivo La Coruna	6	2	3	1	9	7	+2	9
20	Elche	6	0	2	4	8	16	-8	2

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Deportivo La Coruna vs Elche

17 August 2026Deportivo La Coruna 1–1 ElcheLa Liga
1 June 2025Deportivo La Coruna 0–4 ElcheSegunda División
13 October 2024Elche 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
23 June 2020Elche 0–1 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
10 November 2019Deportivo La Coruna 1–3 ElcheSegunda División
4 June 2019Elche 0–0 Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División

Leading scorers: Deportivo La Coruna and Elche