19 August 2026, 19:00 UTC

Atletico Madrid vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result

Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Malaga.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Atletico Madrid, 25% draw, 21% Malaga — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Atletico Madrid at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Atletico Madrid99%Draw1%Malaga0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

D. Hancko
15'
J. Dominguez
37'
45+4'
C. Puga
🔁J. Dominguezout: M. Llorente
46'
🔁A. Ortizout: A. Baena
57'
🔁C. Martinout: Lee Kang-In
57'
🔁R. Mendozaout: G. Simeone
57'
67'
🔁C. Dotorout: R. Rodriguez
67'
🔁J. Munozout: J. Cruz
⚽Lee Kang-Inassist: D. Hancko
70'
72'
🔁C. Pugaout: J. Salinas
🔁Kokeout: M. Hjulmand
78'
80'
J. Cruz
80'
🔁E. Galileaout: R. Enriquez
80'
🔁D. Lorenzoout: E. Jauregi
⚽A. Baena
85'
88'
R. Enriquez

Match stats — Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

53%Possession47%
15Shots5
6On target1
6Corners1
0.82xG0.15

Goals against chances

Atletico Madrid2 from 0.82 xGmore than the chances were worth
Malaga0 from 0.15 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Atletico Madrid 4-1-4-1
  • 13Jan OblakG
  • 27Jorge DomínguezD
  • 24Robin Le NormandD
  • 17Dávid HanckoD
  • 30Dani MartinezD
  • 6KokeM
  • 12Carlos MartínM
  • 4Rodrigo MendozaM
  • 8Pablo BarriosM
  • 16Arnau OrtizM
  • 11Ademola LookmanF
Substitutes
  • 14Marcos LlorenteM
  • 10Alex BaenaM
  • 7Kang-in LeeM
  • 20Giuliano SimeoneF
  • 23Morten HjulmandM
  • 1Juan MussoG
  • 18Marc PubillD
  • 2José María GiménezD
  • 22Alejandro GrimaldoD
Coach: Diego Simeone
Malaga 4-1-4-1
  • 1Alfonso HerreroG
  • 3Carlos PugaD
  • 15Ángel RecioD
  • 4Einar GalileaD
  • 31Rafa GarridoD
  • 23Izan MerinoM
  • 10David LarrubiaM
  • 8Carlos DotorM
  • 22Dani LorenzoM
  • 11Joaquín MuñozM
  • 9ChupeteF
Substitutes
  • 14Rafa RodriguezM
  • 19Juan CruzM
  • 12Jose SalinasD
  • 6Ramón EnríquezM
  • 17Eneko JauregiF
  • 13Carlos LopezG
  • 5Álex PastorD
  • 28Joseph OtunencheM
  • 32Juan FernandézF
Coach: Juan Funes

La Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Atletico Madrid6411146+813
18Malaga503228-63

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Atletico Madrid vs Malaga

  • 19 August 2026Atletico Madrid 2–0 MalagaLa Liga
  • 10 February 2018Malaga 0–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 16 September 2017Atletico Madrid 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
  • 1 April 2017Malaga 0–2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
  • 29 October 2016Atletico Madrid 4–2 MalagaLa Liga
  • 23 April 2016Atletico Madrid 1–0 MalagaLa Liga

Leading scorers: Atletico Madrid and Malaga

Atletico Madrid

  • Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
  • G. Simeone2 goals1 assists

Malaga

No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.