Portland Timbers vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Portland Timbers 3-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 59% Portland Timbers, 23% draw, 18% San Diego — fair odds of 1.69, 4.35 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Portland Timbers at 59% here. Across 2488 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Portland Timbers vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 41J. PantemisG
- 5B. ByeD
- 20F. SurmanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 27J. ForyD
- 17C. BassettM
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 7A. LassiterM
- 10D. Da CostaM
- 99K. VeldeM
- 19K. KelsyF
- 25T. MuseG
- 15E. MillerD
- 23I. SmithD
- 21D. CharaM
- 80J. OrtizM
- 14V. JanssenF
- 88G. GuerraF
- 22O. FernandezF
- 11AntonyF
- 1dos Santos CJG
- 3D. ThorhallssonD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5K. Sargeant
- 8O. ValakariM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 77A. MightenF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 9L. MorganF
- 18D. FerreeG
- 27L. BombinoD
- 97C. McVeyD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 20A. GodoyM
- 70A. Alvarado JrF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 99E. AchouriM
Form going into Portland Timbers vs San Diego
Portland Timbers
- L1-2away to Chicago Fire16 August 2026
- W2-1Seattle Sounders2 August 2026
- W2-1Real Salt Lake26 July 2026
- D2-2FC Dallas23 July 2026
- W5-1away to Seattle Sounders17 July 2026
San Diego
- W1-0away to Los Angeles FC16 August 2026
- D1-1away to Minnesota United FC2 August 2026
- W1-0FC Dallas26 July 2026
- L0-1away to Colorado Rapids23 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Portland Timbers vs San Diego
- 20 August 2026Portland Timbers 3–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 26 April 2026San Diego 1–2 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 10 November 2025San Diego 4–0 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 2 November 2025Portland Timbers 2–2 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 27 October 2025San Diego 2–1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- 19 October 2025Portland Timbers 0–4 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Portland Timbers and San Diego
Portland Timbers
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 47 league goals as a side.
San Diego
- M. Ingvartsen11 goals3 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.