Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Real Sociedad, 25% draw, 24% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Real Sociedad at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 24L. SučićM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 14T. KuboF
- 22Héctor FortD
- 29Alex GarciaF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 12J. OchiengF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 13J. OblakG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 14Marcos LlorenteM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 22Álex GrimaldoM
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 11A. LookmanF
- 5J. CardosoM
- 15J. DavidF
- 27J. DominguezD
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 6KokeM
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 1J. MussoG
- 16Arnau OrtizF
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Real Betis21 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
All competitions we cover
- L1-2away to Liverpool9 September 2026
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
- W2-0Malaga19 August 2026
What these results say
- Real Sociedad conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Madrid conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Madrid had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 20 | +1 | 22 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
- 18 April 2026Atletico Madrid 2–2 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 7 March 2026Atletico Madrid 3–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 4 January 2026Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 10 May 2025Atletico Madrid 4–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 6 October 2024Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
GoalsAssists
- L. Sučić40
- O. Óskarsson40
Atletico Madrid
GoalsAssists
- Álex Baena53
- G. Simeone42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Atletico Madrid won 3–0 at Real Sociedad. The model had leaned towards a win for Real Sociedad at 51% and given a win for Atletico Madrid 24%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Alejandro Grimaldo (penalty) 84' for Atletico Madrid, Jonathan David 90' for Atletico Madrid, Giuliano Simeone Baldini 90+5' for Atletico Madrid.
How the call on Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 27% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Real Sociedad's chance of winning, up 12 points.
- Real Sociedad win51%▲ +12
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Atletico Madrid win24%▼ −10
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.