Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Real Sociedad 0-3 Atletico Madrid.
Before kick-off the model made it 51% Real Sociedad, 25% draw, 24% Atletico Madrid — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Real Sociedad at 51% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 634 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Line-ups
- 1Álex RemiroG
- 2J. AramburuD
- 34Luken BeitiaD
- 19M. SarrD
- 17Sergio GómezD
- 21Y. HerreraM
- 18Carlos SolerM
- 7BarrenetxeaM
- 24L. SučićM
- 11Gonçalo GuedesM
- 10Mikel OyarzabalF
- 4Jon GorrotxategiM
- 14T. KuboF
- 22Héctor FortD
- 29Alex GarciaF
- 13Unai MarreroG
- 3Aihen MuñozD
- 12J. OchiengF
- 16Jon PachecoD
- 8Beñat TurrientesM
- 13J. OblakG
- 18Marc PubillD
- 21C. RomeroD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 20G. SimeoneM
- 14Marcos LlorenteM
- 23M. HjulmandM
- 22Álex GrimaldoM
- 7Lee Kang-InM
- 10Álex BaenaM
- 11A. LookmanF
- 5J. CardosoM
- 15J. DavidF
- 27J. DominguezD
- 25Salvador EsquivelG
- 6KokeM
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 1J. MussoG
- 16Arnau OrtizF
Form going into Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
- W3-2away to Elche7 September 2026
- D0-0Celta Vigo3 September 2026
- W2-1Espanyol29 August 2026
- L1-4away to Real Madrid26 August 2026
Atletico Madrid
- L0-3away to Athletic Club5 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sevilla29 August 2026
- D2-2Villarreal23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid
- 13 September 2026Real Sociedad 0–3 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 18 April 2026Atletico Madrid 2–2 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
- 7 March 2026Atletico Madrid 3–2 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 4 January 2026Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
- 10 May 2025Atletico Madrid 4–0 Real SociedadLa Liga
- 6 October 2024Real Sociedad 1–1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Leading scorers: Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid
Real Sociedad
- L. Sučić2 goals
Atletico Madrid
- Álex Baena3 goals1 assists
- G. Simeone2 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.