Celta Vigo vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Celta Vigo, 31% draw, 32% Malaga — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Celta Vigo at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 21S. CáceresD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 25Iván VillarG
- 19W. SwedbergM
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 22Javi GalánD
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 30H. BurcioM
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 12José SalinasD
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 22Dani LorenzoF
- 9ChupeF
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 2J. CajusteM
- 19Juan CruzM
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 32J. FernandezF
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 3PugaD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Celta Vigo
All competitions we cover
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
- D0-0away to Valencia22 August 2026
Malaga
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
What these results say
- Celta Vigo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Celta Vigo had two goals or fewer.
- Malaga did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Malaga failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Malaga conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Malaga
- 18 March 2018Celta Vigo 0–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 29 October 2017Malaga 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 7 May 2017Malaga 3–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 8 January 2017Celta Vigo 3–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 8 May 2016Celta Vigo 1–0 MalagaLa Liga
Leading scorers: Celta Vigo and Malaga
Celta Vigo
No player in La Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Malaga
GoalsAssists
- Adrián Niño Heredia51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Celta Vigo and Malaga drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Celta Vigo at 37% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Ferran Jutglà 41' for Celta Vigo, Adrian Nino 83' for Malaga.
How the call on Celta Vigo v Malaga has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 39% / 30% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 8 updates, it read 37% / 31% / 32%: the biggest move is Celta Vigo's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Celta Vigo win37%▼ −2
- Draw31%▲ +1
- Malaga win32%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.