Celta Vigo vs Malaga La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Celta Vigo, 31% draw, 32% Malaga — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celta Vigo at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Line-ups
- 13I. RaduG
- 21S. CáceresD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 3Marcos AlonsoD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 8Miguel RománM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 5Sergio CarreiraM
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 25Iván VillarG
- 19W. SwedbergM
- 2C. StarfeltD
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 15Álvaro NúñezD
- 22Javi GalánD
- 11Pablo DuránF
- 24C. DriouechF
- 30H. BurcioM
- 1Alfonso HerreroG
- 31RafitaD
- 15Ángel RecioD
- 4Einar GalileaD
- 12José SalinasD
- 10David LarrubiaM
- 23Izan MerinoM
- 18Pablo MartínezM
- 11Joaquín MuñozM
- 22Dani LorenzoF
- 9ChupeF
- 25Juan BerrocalD
- 2J. CajusteM
- 19Juan CruzM
- 6Ramón EnríquezM
- 32J. FernandezF
- 17Eneko JauregiF
- 13Carlos LópezG
- 21Adrián Niño HerediaF
- 3PugaD
Form going into Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Celta Vigo
- D1-1away to Getafe7 September 2026
- D0-0away to Real Sociedad3 September 2026
- L0-2Athletic Club30 August 2026
- L1-2Osasuna27 August 2026
Malaga
- D0-0Levante6 September 2026
- L0-4away to Real Madrid30 August 2026
- D1-1Deportivo La Coruna24 August 2026
- L0-2away to Atletico Madrid19 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Celta Vigo | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Malaga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Celta Vigo vs Malaga
- 13 September 2026Celta Vigo 1–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 18 March 2018Celta Vigo 0–0 MalagaLa Liga
- 29 October 2017Malaga 2–1 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 7 May 2017Malaga 3–0 Celta VigoLa Liga
- 8 January 2017Celta Vigo 3–1 MalagaLa Liga
- 8 May 2016Celta Vigo 1–0 MalagaLa Liga