Villarreal vs Real Betis La Liga prediction & result
Final score: Villarreal 1-2 Real Betis.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Villarreal, 29% draw, 31% Real Betis — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Villarreal at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Villarreal vs Real Betis
Line-ups
- 25P. GulácsiG
- 15S. MouriñoD
- 6Pau NavarroD
- 12Renato VeigaD
- 20Carlos RomeroD
- 19N. PépéM
- 18P. GueyeM
- 14Santi ComesañaM
- 17T. BuchananM
- 7Gerard MorenoF
- 9G. MikautadzeF
- 23Sergi CardonaD
- 11Ilias AkhomachF
- 2Logan CostaD
- 5A. DiattaM
- 3A. FreemanD
- 13Rubén GómezG
- 1Luíz JúniorG
- 16C. MaciaM
- 10Alberto MoleiroM
- 1Álvaro VallésG
- 2Héctor BellerínD
- 5Marc BartraD
- 4NatanD
- 11Fran GarcíaD
- 8Pablo FornalsM
- 21Marc RocaM
- 17Rodrigo RiquelmeM
- 22IscoM
- 10A. EzzalzouliM
- 9C. HernándezF
- 25Dani CeballosM
- 18N. DeossaM
- 15Álvaro FidalgoM
- 23Junior FirpoD
- 16V. GómezD
- 31Manu GonzálezG
- 20G. Lo CelsoM
- 14Iker LosadaF
- 12Ángel OrtizD
Form going into Villarreal vs Real Betis
Villarreal
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
- L2-3Deportivo La Coruna5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Alaves28 August 2026
- D2-2away to Atletico Madrid23 August 2026
- D2-2away to Racing Santander16 August 2026
Real Betis
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Lille8 September 2026
- W1-0Real Madrid4 September 2026
- L2-5away to Levante29 August 2026
- W1-0away to Valencia25 August 2026
- W1-0Real Sociedad21 August 2026
What these results say
- Villarreal did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Villarreal scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Real Betis scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Real Betis won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Villarreal | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 26 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Real Betis
- 17 January 2026Real Betis 2–0 VillarrealLa Liga
- 18 October 2025Villarreal 2–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 13 April 2025Real Betis 1–2 VillarrealLa Liga
- 15 December 2024Villarreal 1–2 Real BetisLa Liga
- 10 March 2024Real Betis 2–3 VillarrealLa Liga
The result against the call
Real Betis won 2–1 at Villarreal. The model had leaned towards a win for Villarreal at 40% and given a win for Real Betis 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Gerard Moreno 29' for Villarreal, Cucho Hernández 39' for Real Betis, Natan Bernardo de Souza 43' for Real Betis.
How the call on Villarreal v Real Betis has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 43% / 28% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 11 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Villarreal's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Villarreal win40%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- Real Betis win31%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.