13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC

SV Elversberg vs Bayern München Bundesliga prediction & result

Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg
Full time1 – 2

Final score: SV Elversberg 1-2 Bayern München.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% SV Elversberg, 28% draw, 37% Bayern München — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bayern München at 37% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1764 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

SV Elversberg0%Draw5%Bayern München95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Francis Onyeka
7'
🔁Francis Onyekaout: Noah Darvich
11'
26'
⚽Lennart Karlassist: Harry Kane
🔁Cole Campbellout: Maurice Krattenmacher
45'
⚽Maurice Krattenmacherassist: Noah Darvich
61'
Felix Keidel
63'
65'
🔁Nathaniel Brownout: Alphonso Davies
65'
🔁Tom Bischofout: Joshua Kimmich
65'
🔁Ismael Saibariout: Luis Díaz
65'
🔁Lennart Karlout: Jamal Musiala
72'
⚽Harry Kaneassist: Aleksandar Pavlović
🔁Felix Keidelout: Amara Condé
73'
🔁David Mokwaout: Noel Futkeu
73'
🔁Lukas Petkovout: Luca Schnellbacher
83'

Match stats — SV Elversberg vs Bayern München

28%Possession72%
5Shots28
1On target6
3Corners9

Line-ups

SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1
  • 20N. KristofG
  • 30J. GyamerahD
  • 19L. PinckertD
  • 31M. RohrD
  • 21L. GüntherD
  • 43F. KeidelM
  • 8Ł. PorębaM
  • 25L. PetkovM
  • 40Francis-Ikechukwu OnyekaM
  • 39William Cole CampbellM
  • 42D. MokwaF
Substitutes
  • 28T. BossG
  • 6A. CondéM
  • 10Noah DarvichM
  • 9N. FutkeuF
  • 7M. KrattenmacherM
  • 3F. Le JoncourD
  • 2N. MickelsonD
  • 24L. SchnellbacherM
  • 26L. SirchD
Coach: V. Wagner
Bayern München 4-2-3-1
  • 40J. UrbigG
  • 44J. StanišićD
  • 2D. UpamecanoD
  • 3Kim Min-JaeD
  • 11N. BrownD
  • 45A. PavlovićM
  • 8T. BischofM
  • 42L. KarlM
  • 17M. OliseM
  • 34I. SaibariM
  • 9H. KaneF
Substitutes
  • 1M. NeuerG
  • 10J. MusialaM
  • 4J. TahD
  • 27K. LaimerM
  • 6J. KimmichM
  • 21H. ItoD
  • 7S. GnabryF
  • 14L. DíazF
  • 19A. DaviesD
Coach: V. Kompany

Form going into SV Elversberg vs Bayern München

SV Elversberg

  • W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
  • W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026

Bayern München

  • D0-0away to FC Schalke 045 September 2026
  • W5-1VfB Stuttgart28 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6SV Elversberg320187+16
4Bayern München321072+57

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs Bayern München

  • 13 September 2026SV Elversberg 1–2 Bayern MünchenBundesliga

Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and Bayern München

SV Elversberg

  • M. Krattenmacher3 goals
  • D. Mokwa2 goals

Bayern München

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.