Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo HNL prediction & result
Final score: Rudes 2-2 NK Slaven Belupo.
Before kick-off the model made it 37% Rudes, 29% draw, 34% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Rudes at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 95L. RogicG
- 44F. TarabaD
- 42M. ZebicD
- 5M. StolnikD
- 2B. UnusicD
- 24I. DjoricM
- 61C. DiabateM
- 28XaviM
- 37N. SkokoM
- 88S. El HaddadM
- 19C. SahoF
- 32S. DuvnjakG
- 4V. CeljakD
- 26I. ZuticD
- 11J. PoldrugacM
- 10V. SeitzM
- 78J. FernandesF
- 34K. LovricF
- 14T. KolegaF
- 7L. IlecicF
- 32I. CovicG
- 15J. MersinajD
- 6T. BozicD
- 4D. KovacicD
- 3A. JakirD
- 22A. AdeshinaM
- 88D. BosakM
- 7M. DabroF
- 24L. BosnjakM
- 11J. MitrovicM
- 8L. BanovecM
- 30K. SenticG
- 33K. IsasegiD
- 5I. CvetkoD
- 20M. PetrovicD
- 77I. UrataD
- 21L. CrepuljaM
- 23A. JonssonM
- 90I. NestorovskiF
- 14L. RatshukuduF
Form going into Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
Rudes
All competitions we cover
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
- L0-2away to NK Varazdin29 August 2026
- W4-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 August 2026
- L0-4away to Dinamo Zagreb14 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Gorica22 August 2026
- L0-3away to Istra 196115 August 2026
What these results say
- Rudes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Rudes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rudes | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 16 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rudes vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 23 July 2025NK Slaven Belupo 4–2 RudesFriendlies Clubs
- 12 April 2024Rudes 1–3 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 3 February 2024NK Slaven Belupo 4–0 RudesHNL
- 31 October 2023Rudes 3–1 NK Slaven BelupoCup
- 20 October 2023Rudes 0–0 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
Leading scorers: Rudes and NK Slaven Belupo
Rudes
No player in HNL's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski92
- J. Mitrović32
- L. Banovec32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Rudes and NK Slaven Belupo drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Rudes at 37% and given a draw 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: S. El Haddad 54' for Rudes, I. Nestorovski (penalty) 75' for NK Slaven Belupo, I. Nestorovski 79' for NK Slaven Belupo, M. Zebic 90' for Rudes. Sent off: Marko Stolnik (Rudes) 61'. On expected goals it finished 0.45–1.99.
How the call on Rudes v NK Slaven Belupo has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 40% / 28% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 9 updates, it read 37% / 29% / 34%: the biggest move is Rudes's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Rudes win37%▼ −3
- Draw29%▲ +1
- NK Slaven Belupo win34%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.