NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek HNL prediction & result
Final score: NK Varazdin 0-0 NK Osijek.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% NK Varazdin, 27% draw, 28% NK Osijek — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
NK Varazdin at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 33J. SilicG
- 23F. MaglicaD
- 13M. MladenovskiD
- 16N. TepsicD
- 20G. SikosekD
- 28I. CanjugaM
- 24M. MarinaM
- 10A. LatkovicM
- 22L. MamicM
- 38I. TavaresM
- 9S. JuricF
- 1R. McCrorieG
- 12P. BockajD
- 4L. SkaricicD
- 5S. LesjakD
- 44M. BaracD
- 3E. DurakovicD
- 30L. PosinkovicD
- 6D. PuclinM
- 21I. PosavecM
- 31M. MalenicaG
- 22J. KruiverD
- 98I. JezicM
- 26L. JelenicD
- 2M. HeisterD
- 23L. VrbancicM
- 10J. JezicD
- 39D. BukvicM
- 11L. TunjicM
- 30A. LjatifiM
- 79A. LeonF
- 1N. CurcijaG
- 77S. MustaficD
- 33E. HasicD
- 49I. KolarikD
- 47D. KalemD
- 67B. BaktiM
- 9I. BaricF
- 16O. PetrusenkoM
- 18N. FarkasM
Form going into NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
All competitions we cover
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026
NK Osijek
All competitions we cover
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
- W3-0NK Slaven Belupo30 August 2026
- L0-4away to HNK Hajduk Split23 August 2026
- W1-0NK Lokomotiva Zagreb15 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Varazdin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Osijek had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 19 |
| 3 | NK Osijek | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 18 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs NK Osijek
- 17 April 2026NK Osijek 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 8 February 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 3 December 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 NK OsijekCup
- 2 November 2025NK Osijek 0–0 NK VarazdinHNL
- 17 August 2025NK Varazdin 0–0 NK OsijekHNL
Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and NK Osijek
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić60
- I. Canjuga33
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León61
- N. Omerović50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
NK Varazdin and NK Osijek drew 0–0. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Varazdin at 45% and given a draw 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. On expected goals it finished 0.84–0.59.
How the call on NK Varazdin v NK Osijek has moved
First published on 5 Sep at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is NK Varazdin's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- NK Varazdin win45%▲ +3
- Draw27%▼ −3
- NK Osijek win28%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.