HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin HNL prediction & result
Final score: HNK Gorica 2-2 NK Varazdin.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% HNK Gorica, 31% draw, 35% NK Varazdin — fair odds of 2.94, 3.23 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Croatian HNL predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
NK Varazdin at 35%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
Line-ups
- 1R. JosipovićG
- 45S. PerićD
- 32J. FilipovićD
- 15D. StevanovićD
- 5Gonçalo CostaD
- 6T. LacouxM
- 66Juraj FriganM
- 4K. ČustovićM
- 24D. PavičićM
- 25B. BogojevićM
- 9P. MijićF
- 50A. ErcegF
- 2F. BrautD
- 10F. BrodićF
- 26Keenan Nino CaroleF
- 34I. CvijanovićD
- 20L. VrzićF
- 30D. ŽarkovG
- 67Tomislav PrgometM
- 8J. PranjićF
- 33J. SilićG
- 23F. MaglicaD
- 13M. MladenovskiD
- 16N. TepšićD
- 20G. SikošekD
- 28I. CanjugaM
- 24M. MarinaM
- 10A. LatkovićM
- 22L. MamićM
- 38Iuri TavaresM
- 9S. JurićF
- 11E. UchegbuF
- 4L. ŠkaričićD
- 30L. PosinkovicD
- 21I. PosavecM
- 1R. McCrorieG
- 5Sven LesjakD
- 8T. DuvnjakM
- 3E. DurakovićD
- 12P. BočkajD
Form going into HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
All competitions we cover
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
- L0-2away to NK Slaven Belupo22 August 2026
- L1-2HNK Hajduk Split16 August 2026
- L1-3away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb8 August 2026
NK Varazdin
All competitions we cover
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
- L1-3away to Dinamo Zagreb22 August 2026
- W2-0HNK Rijeka16 August 2026
- W4-1away to NK Slaven Belupo9 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica did not win any of these 5 matches.
- HNK Gorica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 13 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 7 |
| 5 | NK Varazdin | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Varazdin
- 3 April 2026NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 4 March 2026NK Varazdin 1–3 HNK GoricaCup
- 26 January 2026HNK Gorica 1–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 19 October 2025HNK Gorica 1–3 NK VarazdinHNL
- 4 August 2025NK Varazdin 1–1 HNK GoricaHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić60
- I. Canjuga33
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
HNK Gorica and NK Varazdin drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for NK Varazdin at 35% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Bruno Bogojević 53' for HNK Gorica, luka mamic 57' for NK Varazdin, Valentin Akrap 85' for NK Varazdin, ivan cvijanovic 90+5' for HNK Gorica.
How the call on HNK Gorica v NK Varazdin has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 33% / 30% / 37% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 34% / 31% / 35%: the biggest move is NK Varazdin's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- HNK Gorica win34%▲ +1
- Draw31%▲ +1
- NK Varazdin win35%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent matches in our records (any competition, kept since July 2026) before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.