4 September 2026, 19:00 UTC

Sandefjord vs Viking Eliteserien prediction & result

Jotun Arena, Sandefjord
Full time1 1

Final score: Sandefjord 1-1 Viking.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Sandefjord, 30% draw, 35% Viking — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Sandefjord at 35% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sandefjord97%Draw3%Viking0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
Peter Christiansen
Elias Hadaya
34'
🔁H. Krogelienout: R. Holten
46'
🔁E. Patoulidisout: F. Apetorgbor
46'
46'
🔁S. Kvia-Egeskogout: H. Bjordal
48'
Jesper Daland
Edvard Pettersen
51'
Foster Apetorgbor
54'
🔁E. Pettersenout: J. Vester
57'
T. Borkeeietassist: F. Apetorgbor
60'
65'
Zlatko Tripić (pen)
Jakob Maslo Dunsby
75'
75'
🔁P. Christiansenout: E. Botheim
75'
🔁J. Bellout: N. Fuglestad
76'
🔁T. Moiout: H. J. Haugen
🔁V. Egeliout: G. Hojbjerg
80'
🔁out: B. Berntsen
80'
84'
🔁V. Auklendout: V. Vevatne
85'
Zlatko Tripić
Xander Lambrix
90+4'
90'
H. Bjordalassist: Z. Tripic

Match stats — Sandefjord vs Viking

54%Possession46%
12Shots18
1On target4
7Corners5
0.62xG2.16

Goals against chances

Sandefjord1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth
Viking1 from 2.16 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sandefjord 4-3-3
  • 30E. HadayaG
  • 4F. PedersenD
  • 16H. KrogelienD
  • 44X. LambrixD
  • 3V. EgeliD
  • 14E. PettersenM
  • 8T. BorkeeietM
  • 6S. MorkM
  • 7E. PatoulidisF
  • 9O. KapskarmoF
  • 27J. DunsbyF
Substitutes
  • 1A. GronnebergG
  • 2M. HellanD
  • 13R. HoltenD
  • 5G. HojbjergD
  • 10E. GigovicM
  • 37J. VesterM
  • 24S. MathisenF
  • 17F. ApetorgborF
  • 19B. BerntsenF
Coach: Andreas Tegstrom
Viking 4-4-2
  • 1A. OstboG
  • 5H. HeggheimD
  • 6G. StensnessD
  • 27J. DalandD
  • 24V. AuklendD
  • 26S. Kvia-EgeskogM
  • 29T. MoiM
  • 8J. BellM
  • 10Z. TripicM
  • 20P. ChristiansenF
  • 7K. AskildsenF
Substitutes
  • 30L. BelkoG
  • 3V. VevatneD
  • 2H. J. HaugenD
  • 17E. BasseyD
  • 16H. BjordalM
  • 15O. VistedM
  • 22E. BotheimF
  • 23N. FuglestadF
  • 11R. PostemaF
Coach: Bjarte Aarsheim

Form going into Sandefjord vs Viking

Sandefjord

  • D0-0Brann30 August 2026
  • W2-1away to Sarpsborg 08 FF16 August 2026
  • L0-1KFUM Oslo7 August 2026

Viking

  • W2-1Aalesund30 August 2026
  • L1-2away to Rosenborg14 August 2026
  • W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FF8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Sandefjord2055101827-920
2Viking2015235120+3147

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sandefjord vs Viking

  • 4 September 2026Sandefjord 1–1 VikingEliteserien
  • 18 July 2026Viking 2–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 10 August 2025Sandefjord 1–2 VikingEliteserien
  • 16 May 2025Viking 3–1 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 2 November 2024Viking 3–2 SandefjordEliteserien
  • 20 May 2024Sandefjord 0–3 VikingEliteserien

Leading scorers: Sandefjord and Viking

Sandefjord

No player in Eliteserien's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.

Viking

  • P. Christiansen10 goals6 assists
  • S. Kvia-Egeskog8 goals2 assists
  • Z. Tripić6 goals18 assists

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.