5 September 2026, 14:00 UTC

Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam Eliteserien prediction & result

Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim
Full time4 – 0

Final score: Rosenborg 4-0 Ham-Kam.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Rosenborg, 29% draw, 26% Ham-Kam — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rosenborg at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rosenborg99%Draw1%Ham-Kam0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽E. K. Ceide
1'
22'
Markus Johnsgard
45+1'
Blerton Isufi
46'
🔁B. Isufiout: F. Sjolstad
⚽N. Sahsahassist: A. Chiakha
52'
⚽A. Chiakhaassist: E. K. Ceide
60'
🔁A. Pereiraout: T. Dahl
65'
🔁S. Nordliout: M. Kjolo
65'
65'
🔁A. Trondsenout: A. Andresen
65'
🔁D. Moreiraout: D. Al Saed
🔁N. Sahsahout: D. Duris
73'
⚽A. Chiakhaassist: T. Dahl
76'
77'
🔁M. Johnsgardout: W. Osnes-Ringen
🔁T. Nemcikout: M. Mampassi
81'
🔁A. Chiakhaout: M. Soboczynski
81'
81'
🔁M. Ofkirout: D. Benjamin

Match stats — Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam

65%Possession35%
16Shots5
8On target2
6Corners3
2.25xG0.48

Goals against chances

Rosenborg4 from 2.25 xGmore than the chances were worth
Ham-Kam0 from 0.48 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rosenborg 4-4-2
  • 1L. WahlstedtG
  • 16A. F. WitryD
  • 4M. K. CeideD
  • 21T. NemcikD
  • 19A. PereiraD
  • 11N. SahsahM
  • 17M. BomholtM
  • 10O. SelnaesM
  • 7S. NordliM
  • 18A. ChiakhaF
  • 35E. K. CeideF
Substitutes
  • 12R. SandbergG
  • 15J. MortensenD
  • 23M. MampassiD
  • 3T. DahlD
  • 5H. VoldenD
  • 6M. KjoloM
  • 20A. BorgersenM
  • 29D. DurisF
  • 30M. SoboczynskiF
Coach: Freyr Alexandersson
Ham-Kam 5-3-2
  • 12M. SandbergG
  • 26P. MetcalfeD
  • 22S. NilsenD
  • 14L. MaresD
  • 3E. Amundsen-DayD
  • 7V. JonssonD
  • 29B. IsufiM
  • 16A. TrondsenM
  • 8M. JohnsgardM
  • 18D. MoreiraF
  • 11M. OfkirF
Substitutes
  • 13S. OstraatG
  • 27J. BarrosD
  • 23F. SjolstadD
  • 5A. AndresenD
  • 10L. MettlerM
  • 6W. Osnes-RingenM
  • 28D. BenjaminF
  • 19H. UdahlF
  • 24D. Al SaedF
Coach: Thomas Myhre

Form going into Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam

Rosenborg

  • L2-4away to Bodo/Glimt30 August 2026
  • W2-1Viking14 August 2026
  • W2-0away to Lillestrom9 August 2026

Ham-Kam

  • D2-2Kristiansund BK30 August 2026
  • L0-3away to Brann16 August 2026
  • D1-1Aalesund9 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Eliteserien table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Rosenborg209383629+730
10Ham-Kam206592741-1423

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rosenborg vs Ham-Kam

  • 5 September 2026Rosenborg 4–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 28 September 2025Ham-Kam 4–0 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 13 July 2025Rosenborg 2–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 10 November 2024Ham-Kam 0–2 RosenborgEliteserien
  • 14 April 2024Rosenborg 1–0 Ham-KamEliteserien
  • 20 August 2023Ham-Kam 3–0 RosenborgEliteserien

Leading scorers: Rosenborg and Ham-Kam

Rosenborg

  • Amin Chiakha12 goals3 assists
  • E. Ceïde5 goals5 assists

Ham-Kam

  • M. Alassane Niang6 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.